Analyzing the 2026 Preseason Coaches Poll: A Closer Look
The release of the preseason Coaches Poll signals the imminent start of the college football season. This year, debates focus on the rivalry between the SEC and Big Ten Conferences. The Indiana Hoosiers’ National Championship win and an undefeated 16-0 season have intensified discussions. Not long ago, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian claimed that undefeated teams were relics in the NIL era.
The 2026 season promises new challenges due to the transfer portal and NIL dynamics, complicating efforts to assess team strengths. Coaching changes across top-tier programs add to the complexity.
Coaching Changes Across the Board
Lane Kiffin is now the LSU head coach, leaving Ole Miss where Pete Golding steps in. Jon Sumrall takes charge at the Florida Gators. Auburn appoints Alex Golesh, and Penn State taps Matt Campbell to replace James Franklin. Michigan, dealing with internal challenges after Sherrone Moore’s departure, hires Kyle Whittingham. Morgan Scalley leads in Salt Lake, while UCLA counts on Bob Chesney to rejuvenate the program.
These shifts raise questions about how well the Coaches Poll evaluators adapt to these transformations. A comparison against analytics-driven systems can provide insights.
Analytics vs. Human Voters
Metrics-based polls like SP+, created by Bill Connelly and found on ESPN, utilize efficiency numbers to rank teams based on performance without biases typical of human voters. Evaluating a team’s play, rather than only wins or losses, is crucial for accuracy.
SP+ preseason rankings closely align with the Coaches Poll, particularly at the top. Ohio State and Oregon lead both rankings, with Georgia third in the Coaches Poll and fourth in SP+. Texas and Notre Dame also hold strong positions, though SP+ and the poll differ slightly.
Middle-Rank Discrepancies
Middle rankings show more variation, often affected by impactful human biases. Oklahoma and Ole Miss are positioned higher in the Coaches Poll than in SP+, reflecting a favor for SEC teams in preseason assessments. Historical examples include Florida and LSU’s unexpectedly poor finishes after being highly ranked based on past performance and reputation.
Underrated and Overrated Teams
Some teams are undervalued, like LSU at 13th in the poll but 10th in SP+. The team’s robust transfer portal acquisitions are expected to strengthen their position. Tennessee also feels underrated, showing up at 18th in the poll but 15th in SP+. Their performance last year was strong, though improvements in key games are necessary.
Texas Tech stands out for its strategic use of NIL and the portal, leading to a successful 2025. Despite a tough playoff loss to Oregon, they are expected to maintain high offensive and defensive rankings, placing them seventh in SP+ but 12th in the poll.
Conversely, Houston seems overvalued, sitting at 24th in the poll despite being 36th in SP+. The anticipated Week 3 matchup against Texas Tech will test their standings.
Conclusion
Overall, the Coaches Poll is reasonably accurate, with most teams ranked close to where analytics-based systems would place them—except for a few deviations. For fans of teams ranked between 10-20, hope remains. Indiana’s rise from 19th to a national title last year offers a reminder of college football’s unpredictability.
Ian Miller reports for OutKick.