Darline Graham Leads in South Carolina Senate Primary

Darline Graham, the interim South Carolina Senator chosen to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham, leads the race for the GOP Senate nomination. According to a recent Quantus Insights poll conducted on August 5-6, she holds a double-digit lead ahead of the special primary on August 11.

The survey indicates Graham has 30.4 percent support initially. Behind her, Representative Ralph Norman has 17.5 percent, Representative Russell Fry holds 16.6 percent, and former Governor Mark Sanford has 15.4 percent. Currently, 11.7 percent of voters remain undecided. After distributing the preference of undecided voters, Graham’s support increases to 33.1 percent, Norman to 20.4 percent, Fry to 19.6 percent, and Sanford to 17.4 percent.

Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Norman and Fry for comment, while also leaving a message for Graham’s office.

Overview of the Special Primary

The August 11 special primary in South Carolina follows the sudden passing of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11, attributed to an aortic dissection. The ballot includes ten Republican candidates vying for his Senate seat. The candidates are:

• Darline Graham, interim senator endorsed by Trump
• Ralph Norman, congressman from the 5th District
• Russell Fry, congressman from the 7th District
• Mark Sanford, former governor
• Mark Lynch, Greenville businessman
• Duke Buckner, attorney and educator
• Glenda Gail Parker, retired Air Force officer
• Danny Ford II, farmer and businessman
• Mark McBride, former Myrtle Beach mayor
• Sam Shepherd, biomedical engineer

Graham’s Prospects

Despite lacking political experience, Darline Graham’s candidacy benefits significantly from President Donald Trump’s endorsement. In a statement on Truth Social, Trump praised Graham as a patriotic figure committed to serving South Carolina, urging her to run for the seat.

The most recent Quantus Insights poll is Graham’s strongest showing to date. Previously, an Emerson College survey indicated Norman slightly leading, while a Resonance Media Services poll showed Graham in front.

The cumulative polling data highlights Graham as a top contender, though competition for the second-place position remains strong, with potential for a runoff.

Outlook from Prediction Markets

Prediction markets reflect substantial confidence in Graham’s chances. On Polymarket, users wager a 65 percent probability of her finishing first. Norman trails at 21 percent and Fry at 9 percent. On Kalshi, Graham is at 47 percent likelihood to win the primary, compared to Fry’s 27 percent and Norman’s 23 percent.

Upcoming Election Dynamics

The primary, preceding official voting, remains competitive. Early voting concluded with over 41,000 ballots cast early, according to the State Election Commission.

This primary is seen as a gauge of Trump’s influence within the South Carolina GOP after his endorsement. Gibbs Knotts, a political science professor at Coastal Carolina University, cautions that the primary’s outcome may have broader implications. He notes the danger of emerging with negative perceptions before the general election.

For editorial context, contact Newsweek editors Matthew Robinson and Trevor Davies.