Hochul’s Lead Over Blakeman Narrowing in New York Gubernatorial Race

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August 12, 2026
Election Coverage Politics

A recent poll by Siena University indicates a decline in New York Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman. Among likely voters in New York, Hochul holds a 49-39% lead over Blakeman. This represents a drop from a 52-32% lead reported in June. The survey also shows a negative favorability rating of 30-47% for the Democratic Socialists of America among likely voters.

Steven Greenberg, Siena pollster, highlighted that four years ago, in August 2022, Hochul had a 14-point lead over Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, her then-opponent. In that election, she won by a margin of 53-47%.

Blakeman, currently Nassau County Executive, stated that recent polls suggest the race is extremely close. He criticized the Siena poll for allegedly being inaccurate. He emphasized that Hochul’s policies on taxes, electric bills, and crime rates have adversely affected her standing among voters.

The poll, conducted from August 3-6 with 811 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points. It suggests Hochul is perceived as more capable than Blakeman in making prices more affordable and increasing affordable housing availability, holding leads of 48-41% and 51-35% respectively.

Regarding issues such as public safety and undocumented immigrants, Hochul leads Blakeman narrowly. She has a slight advantage in keeping New Yorkers safe, 47-44%, and on immigration, 45-44%.

Partisan loyalties remain strong, with Hochul leading among Democrats 80-8% and Blakeman among Republicans 84-9%. Independent voters prefer Blakeman by five points, 45-40%. In geographic terms, Hochul has a significant lead in New York City, 64-19%, but lags behind in the downstate suburbs and is evenly matched with Blakeman upstate.

The poll also explored voters’ views on the Democratic Socialists of America. The group received a negative reception overall, with Democrats viewing them favorably, while Republicans and independents predominantly viewed them unfavorably.