Trump’s Approval Ratings and Their Impact on the Midterm Elections
With the midterm elections approaching in November, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings suggest challenges ahead. As of August 19, only 35% of voters nationwide approve of his job performance, while 59% disapprove. This results in a net approval rating of -24, according to Civiqs’ online tracking poll of registered voters. This survey has gathered 124,759 responses since Trump’s inauguration for a second term on January 20, 2025.
State-by-State Approval
In most states, Trump’s approval remains underwater. Notably, he is significantly underwater in all seven battleground states he won in the 2024 presidential election. These ratings imply that even minor shifts in support could influence important races in the upcoming midterms. Some states where Trump once received positive evaluations, including Indiana and Mississippi, now show negative ratings.
The White House routinely dismisses concerns about Trump’s low approval ratings by pointing to his victory in the 2024 elections as a testament to public support.
Importance for Midterms
Historically, a president’s party typically loses seats during midterm elections. Trump’s unpopularity in many states presents Republicans with the challenge of retaining their slim majorities in Congress. Democrats aim to gain enough seats to control Congress, potentially obstructing Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term.
Most Popular States for Trump
In some Republican strongholds, Trump enjoys positive approval ratings. His highest approval is in Wyoming, with a net rating of +22. Other states with positive ratings include:
- North Dakota: +18
- South Dakota: +9
- Alabama: +6
- Idaho: +9
- West Virginia: +13
- Arkansas: +8
- Oklahoma: +7
- Montana: +4
These numbers reflect a decline from the beginning of his second term, where ratings were higher.
Least Popular States for Trump
Trump’s approval is lowest in Democratic strongholds. In Hawaii, only 18% approve, resulting in a net rating of -60. Other states with notably low ratings include:
- Vermont: -54
- Maryland: -52
- Massachusetts: -48
- California: -43
- Connecticut: -41
- Washington: -43
- Oregon: -40
- New York: -39
Impact on Battleground States
Trump remains underwater in all seven swing states he won in 2024, impacting Republican prospects in midterm races. These include:
- Arizona: -13
- Georgia: -23
- Michigan: -22
- Nevada: -21
- North Carolina: -16
- Pennsylvania: -19
- Wisconsin: -17
Even Florida, a state leaning Republican recently, shows Trump at -11 approval.
Potential Midterm Effects
According to Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor, presidential approval ratings often predict midterm outcomes. He notes that Trump’s disapproval in many states could hurt Republican candidates. Grant Davis Reeher, also a professor, highlights that despite negative perceptions of the Democrats, they could retake the House due to various factors.
White House Position
Responding to poll inquiries, White House spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizes the mandate Trump received from nearly 80 million voters to implement his agenda. Ingle highlights Trump’s efforts in job creation, inflation management, and enhancing housing affordability, asserting that his presidency has achieved more than any before.