Democrats Eye Key Races as Trump’s Approval Ratings Waver Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Democrats are launching competitive campaigns for Senate and gubernatorial positions in states where President Donald Trump secured double-digit wins in the 2024 presidential election. In states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, Democrats see opportunities arising from potential Republican weaknesses as the 2026 midterms approach.

Trump’s Approval Ratings

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, explained that presidential approval and the economy are pivotal indicators in midterm outcomes. Trump’s low ratings in these areas are influencing the competitiveness of races in these states. His national approval rating stands at 35 percent, while 59 percent disapprove, according to a Civiqs poll. Other polls similarly reflect his unpopularity. For example, a Strength in Numbers/Verasight poll found Trump struggling across multiple issues, with a margin of error of 2.6 percent.

Political analyst Alex Patton remarked on the sour political climate for Republicans, driven by challenging economic conditions and various other issues. Professor Hans Noel from Georgetown University noted Trump’s increasing involvement in the midterms, making him a focal point for voters.

2026 Midterm Landscape

Traditionally, the party in power loses ground during midterm elections. Political experts recognize that while Trump’s approval ratings will play a significant role in the 2026 midterms, local issues and candidate quality remain factors. Matt Klink of Klink Campaigns highlighted past midterm losses under Obama as being relatively better than what Republicans face now, pointing out the significant loss of seats experienced in 2018 under Trump.

Democrat strategist Doug Gordon sees Trump’s unpopularity as an advantage for Democrats in battleground states, though some experts caution against focusing solely on national perspectives, like Tim Hagle’s emphasis on local issues.

Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, observed that Democrats now have a path to a Senate majority, needing to win three of six toss-up races.

State Races in Focus

Alaska

In Alaska, despite Trump’s 13.1 percentage point victory in 2024, Democrats remain competitive in statewide races. Dan Sullivan (R) faces Mary Peltola (D) in a tight Senate contest. Polls by Data for Progress and Alaska Survey Research indicate a closely contested race with ranked-choice voting influencing outcomes.

Ohio

Ohio is a key target, with Democrat Sherrod Brown challenging Republican Jon Husted for a Senate seat. Despite Trump carrying the state by around 11 points in 2024, Brown shows an edge in polls. His support among independents is notable, and the race is rated as a toss-up by election forecasters.

In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton is contending with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in a tight race. Polls are mixed, with margins of error showing potential shifts before election day.

Texas

Texas, a long-time Republican stronghold, presents Democrats with a chance to challenge Ken Paxton (R) amid his legal controversies. James Talarico (D) competes in a near deadlock race, with polls fluctuating between narrow leads for both candidates. Forecasters label the contest a toss-up.

Iowa

In Iowa, Josh Turek (D) challenges Ashley Hinson (R) for the Senate seat. Although historically Republican, Democrats eye opportunities amid close polling results. The state governor race sees Rob Sand (D) against Zach Lahn (R), with recent polls giving Sand a slight advantage.

Kansas

Cindy Holscher (D) aims to succeed Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Kansas, despite the state’s Republican lean. The governor’s race is competitive, and early polls show a close contest between Holscher and Ty Masterson (R).

Voters will soon decide the composition of Congress and several state offices, determining the political balance as these races unfold against a backdrop of national and local dynamics influencing voter decisions.