Josh Turek Leads Iowa Senate Race Amid Competitive Political Climate

A new Marist poll indicates that Democrat Josh Turek is leading over Republican Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s Senate election. This race resembles the conditions of Democrats’ last victory in a statewide Senate election 18 years ago.

The poll, released on Tuesday, shows that 50% of registered Iowa voters support Turek, compared to 42% for Hinson. Conducted between September 17 and 20, the survey included 1,050 registered voters reached through phone, text, or online. The election is for the seat of retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst and might influence control of the U.S. Senate.

Before the poll’s release, Hinson distanced herself from President Donald Trump by calling for an end to the Iran war on Monday. Trump endorsed her last September. Democrats last won an Iowa Senate seat with Tom Harkin defeating Christopher Reed 18 years ago, while subsequent elections favored Republicans Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley.

This year’s elections may shift the balance of the House and Senate. Republican candidates aim to address concerns about the economy, inflation, fuel costs, and the Iran conflict. Despite a leaning towards Republicans since 2008, Iowa has supported presidential candidates from both parties. Trump won the state in recent elections, yet Barack Obama previously secured Iowa twice. On Tuesday, Polymarket labeled the Iowa race as a toss-up, with Turek having a 48% chance of winning. Requests for comment were sent to the campaigns of both Turek and Hinson.

How 2026 Iowa Midterm Compares to Harkin’s Win in 2008

The current political setting shows similarities to the 2008 election. A prominent correlation is the widespread economic anxiety across Iowa and the nation. Although 2008’s economic concerns centered on a financial crisis, both cycles grappled with rising prices.

Iowa farmers face challenges from current economic conditions, including tariffs, the Iran war, and fuel issues. “Ashley Hinson is losing due to Iowans’ frustration with corrupt D.C. politicians who damage Iowa for personal and donor gain,” stated Drew Myers, Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson. “Hinson’s votes perpetuate the Iran war, spiking fuel prices while benefiting Big Oil donors. Upon joining Congress, Hinson’s net worth increased significantly, while costs for basics rose. This is why Iowans will oppose her in 42 days.”

Hinson is aware of these political risks. On Monday, she called for an end to the Iran war in a post on X. “Iowans shouldn’t bear the cost of the Iran conflict at gas stations or stores,” she said. “We must use all options to provide relief, like suspending the gas tax, stopping diesel exports, implementing E-15, reinstating biodiesel credits, and launching a diesel relief program for farmers and truckers hurt by high costs. Meanwhile, we must ensure our highways are maintained.”

Turek responded promptly to Hinson’s post on X. He pointed out, “It’s easy to tweet, but you didn’t vote to end the war when you had the chance. Instead, you voted seven times to continue it, including last week. It’s time to stop the endless wars and prioritize Iowa. It’s good to see you’re aligning with the proposals I offered to tackle the war’s rising costs.”

The Iran conflict resembles the 2008 political climate where the Iraq War was pivotal. In 2008, John McCain defended the war’s decisions, while Obama opposed the Iraq invasion.

Despite parallels to the 2008 race that favored Harkin, differences exist. The Iraq War involved prolonged U.S. military action, while the Iran conflict sees more limited U.S. involvement. Harkin was an experienced incumbent in 2008, which was a general election year, not midterm.

Additional polls will likely appear leading up to the midterm election, indicating whether Turek’s lead from the Marist poll can hold. Both campaigns are expected to increase spending and outreach as the November 3 election approaches. The final outcome between Hinson and Turek remains uncertain, positioned as one of this cycle’s most competitive elections.

Newsweek published this story with assistance from Martyn, an AI assistant.