South Carolina Senate Race: A Close Contest Between Annie Andrews and Darline Graham

Democrat Annie Andrews trails Republican Senator Darline Graham by a single point in a recent poll for the South Carolina Senate race. This has heightened Democratic hopes for a potential victory in the 2026 midterm elections. Despite South Carolina’s historically conservative stance, recent shifts suggest opportunities for change.

Current Polling Figures

The new InsiderAdvantage poll shows Graham at 46 percent support, with Andrews close behind at 45 percent, within the poll’s margin of error of 2.83 percentage points. Polling included 1,200 likely voters, conducted from September 28 to September 29, 2026. Other candidates garnered 5 percent support, and 4 percent remain undecided.

It’s a notable trend of narrowing margins in the South Carolina Senate race. Previous disappointments in 2020, when Senator Lindsey Graham won despite close polls, highlight the unpredictability. Polls before the election had shown a tight race between him and Democrat Jaime Harrison.

Polling Trends and National Context

Graham has maintained a slight lead in recent polls. A Trafalgar Group poll similarly gives her a one-point lead over Andrews, as surveyed among 1,087 likely voters. The margin of error was 2.9 points. Another InsiderAdvantage poll earlier in September showed Graham ahead by just 2 points.

These figures contrast with previous election years. In 2024, Trump claimed 58 percent in South Carolina, an easy win against former Vice President Kamala Harris. However, national polls now show Democrats with a 15-point edge on the generic ballot, hinting at potential shifts.

Historical and Demographic Challenges

Historically, South Carolina poses challenges for Democrats. It last supported a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. Republican dominance continued in subsequent elections, with Trump winning by significant margins in 2020 and 2024.

The state last chose a Democratic senator in 1998 when Ernest Hollings was elected. However, a substantial Black voter base, which leans Democratic, gives Democrats a platform for potential gains. Urban areas like Charleston favor Democrats, but rural and suburban regions often tip the balance to Republicans.

Many believe national dynamics could affect conservative states like South Carolina. Trump’s approval ratings have declined, as shown by Civiqs’ polling data, which tracks his approvals across states.

Election Forecasts and Voter Information

Despite the close polls, forecasts generally favor Graham. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as either Likely or Safe Republican.

Voter registration and early voting deadlines are crucial. October 2nd marks the in-person registration deadline. Online, fax, or email registration ends by October 4th, and October 5th is for mailed registrations. Early voting is from October 19 to 31. Absentee ballot applications close on October 23.