Republican Steve Hilton Faces Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra in California Governor Race

Republican Steve Hilton is set to compete in the general-election against former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, aiming to become California’s first Republican governor in 15 years. With Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom unable to run due to term limits, Republicans see a chance to seize control. Hilton has become the GOP’s focus, banking on issues like illegal immigration and crime to capture voter attention.

On Tuesday night, the Decision Desk forecasted Hilton’s progression in the election. Former President Donald Trump praised Hilton’s achievement on Truth Social. According to the Associated Press, with 83 percent of the votes counted by 12:21 a.m. Tuesday, Hilton was in second place at 25.1 percent, trailing Democrat Tom Steyer at 22.4 percent.

Hilton’s Electoral Prospects

Polling data indicates Hilton may viably contend for the governor seat, but challenges remain. A recent SurveyUSA poll showed Hilton and Steyer tied at 20 percent, with Becerra at 17 percent. Conversely, an Emerson College poll placed Hilton third at 21 percent, with Becerra leading at 28 percent and Steyer at 22 percent.

Post-primary, Democrats consolidating support behind a single candidate could further disadvantage Hilton. Prior vote splits among several Democratic candidates might narrow, potentially widening Hilton’s existing gap. According to Kalshi odds, Hilton has a 7 percent chance of winning compared to Becerra’s 70 percent.

Hilton’s Strengths and Challenges

Hilton, known from his Fox News tenure, presents a recognizable ideological stance. His campaign highlights tax reduction, crime control, and opposing Democratic policies. Trump has endorsed him with promises of support, emphasizing the chance to “turn it around.” If elected, Hilton plans to investigate past fraud under Newsom’s administration.

Despite unified GOP backing, the challenge remains significant due to California’s Democratic voter majority, double the number of registered Republicans. Hilton needs to attract independents or Democrats to his cause. Voter dissatisfaction with the economy or Newsom might provide opportunities.

Historical Context and Fundraising

The last Republican to win California’s governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger, reelected in 2006. At that time, party registration was more balanced, with Republicans numbering 5.4 million and Democrats 6.7 million. Today, Democrats have over 10 million registered voters compared to 5 million Republicans.

Hilton has raised over $7 million for his campaign this year, with half of contributions post-April 19 indicating growing appeal. Becerra’s campaign trails slightly, with just over $6 million raised, while Steyer’s campaign funds surpass $160 million.

Becerra’s Advances and Campaign Focus

Xavier Becerra secured a spot in the November gubernatorial election, gaining traction from a crowded primary. As a Democrat and former California Attorney General, Becerra emphasizes affordability, addressing housing and energy costs, and positioning himself as a counter to Trump.

Becerra’s potential victory could mark a historic milestone as California’s first Latino governor in over a century. Supporters highlight his public service experience, though his tenure during the COVID-19 pandemic under the Biden administration has drawn scrutiny.