Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Influence on Iran and Regional Dynamics
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei fundamentally reshaped Iran over his tenure as supreme leader, transforming the nation into a formidable regional force and increasing tensions with Israel and the United States. His funeral commenced Saturday following his death amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran.
Assuming leadership in 1989 after the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolutionary who toppled the shah, Khamenei, albeit with less religious authority, established a lasting government framework. He championed various militant entities across the Middle East, advanced Iran’s nuclear endeavors, and suppressed numerous protest movements through rigorous crackdowns. These confrontations, while bolstering domestic support, precipitated Khamenei’s downfall.
Post the 1980s conflict with Iraq, Khamenei elevated the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, a pivotal entity supporting his administration, into a foremost military and economic powerhouse. The Revolutionary Guard grew to be the country’s most influential force, with extensive involvement in Iran’s economic sectors.
Throughout his governance, Iran shifted from direct military engagement to supporting proxy groups, establishing the “Axis of Resistance.” This included endorsing Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant faction that ousted Israeli forces from southern Lebanon in 2000 and has repeatedly clashed with Israel since then. Iran also backed the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who seized control of the capital in 2014, and Hamas in Gaza, which opposed Israeli operations. Iranian-supported militias conducted insurgencies against U.S. troops in Iraq.
Recent conflicts initiated by Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel undermined the Axis of Resistance, weakening both Hamas and Hezbollah.
For years, Khamenei insisted on Iran’s sovereign entitlement to its nuclear development. He ignored U.N. sanctions and continued Iran’s nuclear initiatives, suspected by the U.S. and allies to have concealed efforts for a nuclear weapon until 2003. Khamenei issued a verbal fatwa declaring nuclear arms as contrary to Islam while asserting the country’s right to peaceful nuclear energy.
Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to substantially limit its uranium resources for sanction relief. But after the U.S. under President Donald Trump exited the agreement in 2018, welcomed by Israel, Iran amassed uranium nearing weapons-grade potency. Israelis and some U.S. officials expressed fears Iran might pursue nuclear armament.
American-Israeli assaults in 2025, along with current wartime activities, targeted Iran’s nuclear capacities.
Various mass protests marked Khamenei’s rule, met with violent suppressions. Economic woes and political repression generated consecutive protest waves. In 2009, electoral misconduct claims against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad incited protests, leaving many dead and incarcerated after crackdowns. Economic unrest emerged in 2017, is escalating in 2019 over gasoline price hikes, led to over 300 protestors’ deaths.
Following Mahsa Amini’s 2022 detention and subsequent death for improper headscarf use, over 500 protestors were killed, and numerous detained during intense demonstrations. Late 2025 saw unprecedented economic protests, as hundreds of thousands decried the Islamic Republic’s continuation. Brutal suppressions claimed over 7,000 lives, greatly shocking Iranians.
What follows Khamenei’s passing remains uncertain. He had designated his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor who’s reportedly injured during the strike that killed Khamenei and remains absent publicly. Amid Trump urging Iranians to seize governmental control, no uprising appears imminent as hard-line supporters crowd Tehran’s streets nightly.
The aftermath of Khamenei’s burial might heavily hinge on entities like the Revolutionary Guard, renowned for deploying overpowering force to safeguard power.