Evolving U.S. Relations with Gulf Monarchies

For many years, Washington viewed the Gulf monarchies as key allies in the Middle East. The U.S. established a vast military presence, including bases in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. These nations hosted U.S. troops, purchased American arms, and aligned with U.S. priorities. In return, they sought American protection.

This agreement is now under strain. The most significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East is happening within the Gulf sheikhdoms. They are reassessing whether the U.S. remains a reliable security partner or if they are vulnerable to retaliation due to their alliance with Washington.

President Trump’s actions regarding Iran have prompted this reevaluation. When the U.S. and Israel launched actions against Iran, Gulf Arab states participated. However, as American forces operated from Gulf bases, these states faced intense Iranian retaliation. Despite being praised by Trump, the Gulf leaders realized the risks of supporting U.S. military operations.

A critical moment arose when Trump introduced “Project Freedom,” a naval initiative aimed at securing commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait refused to support the operation by not granting base access. Qatar limited activities at Al-Udeid Air Base. Lacking regional cooperation, the U.S. paused the mission after just two ships were escorted. The actions of Gulf nations highlighted a major shift away from automatic U.S. alignment.

Washington assumed Gulf bases were always available for its use. Now, Gulf states question the benefits of this arrangement. They are geographically close to Iran, becoming frontline targets in any U.S.-Iran conflict. They realize they serve as platforms for American power, not partners with equal protections.

This realization is prompting Gulf states to prioritize their interests. They are adopting a “transactional neutrality,” selectively supporting U.S. operations. They are also diversifying defense ties, purchasing non-American technologies, and engaging diplomatically with regional rivals, including Iran.

These changes should concern Washington. American operations in the region rely on Gulf cooperation. If Gulf cooperation weakens, the U.S. may struggle to maintain its regional influence despite its military capabilities.

The shift extends beyond immediate crises. The Gulf states are redefining their relationship with the U.S. on more limited terms, signaling the end of unconditional support. They are unwilling to serve as targets for U.S. actions while counting on questionable protection. Once partners begin questioning their alignment with Washington, a return to automatic compliance is unlikely.

Brahma Chellaney has authored nine books, including the award-winning “Water: Asia’s New Battleground.”