U.S. States Face Demographic Shifts with Natural Population Decline

Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that more states in the U.S. are observing higher death rates than birth rates. This trend is linked to a nationwide drop in fertility rates, which are now below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Such a decline raises concerns about the future growth of the workforce and the viability of Social Security.

During the period from July 2024 to July 2025, 17 states reported more deaths than births. This marks a significant rise compared to the 2010s, when typically only four states experienced this natural population decrease according to Census Bureau estimates.

Reasons for Declining Birth Rates

Fertility rates are decreasing across the country, even in Utah, known for larger family sizes. Factors such as rising housing costs, delayed marriages, and changing cultural values contribute to this trend. Although immigration and domestic migration can offset population declines, states facing a consistent discrepancy between deaths and births encounter long-term demographic issues.

States Experiencing Natural Population Decrease

The Census Bureau estimates for July 2024 through July 2025 reveal that states like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maine, and Michigan had the largest natural decreases in population. Many states with more deaths than births were found in the Northeast and Appalachia, regions with generally older populations. The financial burden of child-rearing also influences these trends.

“It’s just not feasible for families planning to have more children simply because they may not be able to afford to,” said Divya Sangameshwar, a LendingTree insurance researcher.

She notes that costs linked to child-rearing, coupled with inflation and job insecurity, can make families reconsider having more children.

States with Natural Population Growth

Some states managed to sustain natural population growth during this period. Texas led with approximately 157,700 more births than deaths, followed by California, New York, Georgia, and Utah. According to Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the Gardner Institute, economic factors like housing and childcare costs, along with social aspects such as the postponement of marriage, impact declining fertility rates.

The Increasing Role of Migration

Overall state population growth can persist even if deaths surpass births. Florida exemplifies this, showing a natural decrease yet remaining among the fastest-growing states due to an influx of residents from other U.S. states and countries. Migration might increasingly be a critical factor in distinguishing expanding states from those shrinking amid falling birth rates.

“With natural change less of a contributor to growth than it used to be, some states – especially those without positive net domestic migration – are dependent on international migration for their population to grow,” explained Marc Perry, a senior demographer at the U.S. Census Bureau.

Future Outlook

As birth and death rates increasingly exert less influence on population growth, attracting new residents will likely become crucial for states facing natural decrease. Doing so is vital for sustaining economic growth and supporting local businesses.