New Polls Indicate Close Senate Race in Texas

Recent polling results have given Texas Democrats renewed hope in one of the nation’s key Senate races. Democratic State Representative James Talarico is shown to be leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, albeit narrowly, in a new Fox News poll. The findings highlight a strong showing for a Democrat in a generally Republican-leaning state.

The Senate seat, previously seen as a Republican stronghold, now appears more competitive for the 2026 election. Democrats have not secured a Senate victory in Texas in many years. The poll indicates Talarico’s lead over Paxton is driven by support from moderates, Black voters, younger residents, and other important groups. Among highly motivated and interested voters, Talarico’s lead extends to six points, consistent with other recent surveys.

Nick Maddux, spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign, emphasized that the final poll takes place on November 3. He criticized Talarico’s record, citing endorsements and votes against certain policies, asserting that Talarico’s campaign would ultimately end in failure.

On the other side, JT Ennis, representing Talarico’s campaign, remarked that Texans are seeking change from a corrupt political system, ready for a leader focused on ordinary citizens rather than wealthy donors.

Talarico has accused the Attorney General’s office of withholding communications related to what he called a favorable deal for attorney Adam Hoffman, who faced charges involving sexual abuse in Waco, Texas. The resolution of those charges resulted in a reduced sentence and loss of Hoffman’s law license, without requiring him to register as a sex offender.

According to the Fox News poll, Talarico holds a 51 to 48 percent advantage over Paxton, which falls within the margin of error. Those most motivated and interested in voting show 53 percent support for Talarico. More respondents express concern over Paxton’s character compared to Talarico’s perceived extremism. Democrats have a seven-point edge in voter motivation and six-point lead in election interest.

Among independents, Talarico has 68 percent backing, compared to Paxton’s 89 percent Republican support. Non-MAGA Republicans and Hispanics also show significant support for Talarico. The survey included 1,006 registered voters from July 23 to 27, with a margin of error of three percent.

These statistics suggest that Democratic voter intensity might play a critical role in the elections. Republicans currently hold a 53-45 Senate majority, excluding independents who align with Democrats. Flipping the Texas seat is seen as essential for Democrats aiming to regain Senate control, while Republicans find it crucial to maintain their lead.

Despite his strong base among men and rural voters, Paxton faces obstacles in uniting Republicans after a contentious primary. The loss of MAGA Republican support and independent voters poses a significant challenge. Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster, noted the difficulties Paxton faces and the need to associate Talarico with the far left.

If trends show Talarico maintaining his lead, the race may become a central Senate contest in 2026 with significant outcomes for Senate control. While campaigning continues, Democrats see the poll as a sign of increased competitiveness in Texas politics.

Other polls, like one from The New York Times/Siena, show a tie between Paxton and Talarico at 47 percent. Polling done from June 19 to 27 involved 656 likely voters and had a 4.5 percent margin of error. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll displays Talarico ahead by five points, further highlighting a competitive race.