Trump’s Approval Among Christian Groups Shows Diverse Trends

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have taken different directions among two significant Christian groups. Recent analysis by Newsweek reveals that his approval among born-again Protestants has risen steadily, while it has decreased among Roman Catholics.

According to five national polls by Marquette Law School, Trump’s approval rating among born-again Protestants climbed from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July. Conversely, his approval among Catholics dropped from 54 percent to 45 percent during the same timeframe. This resulted in a stark contrast in Trump’s net approval ratings: plus 22 among born-again Protestants and minus 10 among Catholics, leading to a 32-point gap.

The Catholic Shift and Tensions with the Pope

The decline in Trump’s support among Catholics has occurred amidst his public tensions with Pope Leo XIV over issues like immigration and the war with Iran. Even though both parties have minimized their disputes, Leo consistently advocated for peace and compassion for migrants. In contrast, Trump opposed the pontiff’s public comments. While the polls do not establish a direct link between these tensions and his declining approval, they indicate a growing divide between Catholic voters and Trump’s born-again Protestant base.

When Newsweek asked the White House for comments, spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated, “There has never been a greater president for Christian Americans than President Trump, and his strong record proves it. President Trump ended the weaponization of the federal government against people of faith, proudly defended and expanded our religious rights, pardoned pro-life activists, stopped the chemical mutilation of our nation’s children, and protected parents’ rights.” Rogers contrasted Trump’s record with Democrats, whom she accused of infringing on Christian rights.

Poll Highlights

The disparity between the two Christian groups became more prominent after April. For born-again Protestants, Trump’s approval rate increased from 56 percent in January to 61 percent in July, raising his net approval from +12 to +22. Meanwhile, Catholic approval shrank from 54 percent in January to 45 percent in July, signifying an 18-point net swing from +8 to -10.

Among mainline Protestants, Trump’s approval remained constant at 47 percent. Nationally, Trump’s approval fell from 42 percent in January to 38 percent in May and June, with a slight recovery to 40 percent in July.

Politics and Religious Divides

The polling used separate national samples and surveyed between 1,002 and 1,514 adults, with margins of error from plus or minus 2.7 to 3.5 percentage points. These surveys were conducted at different times from January through July.

Trump’s Feud with the Pope

The variations in Trump’s standings among Christian groups are influenced by his public disputes with Pope Leo. Trump’s strict immigration policies were criticized by Leo and other Catholic leaders, leading to contrasts with conservative Catholics backing the president’s border measures.

The conflict heightened during the U.S. confrontation with Iran. Leo called for peace and questioned whether the conflict met the Catholic criteria for a just war. In response to Trump’s ultimatum towards Iran, the pope deemed Trump’s threats “truly unacceptable.” Trump retorted, emphasizing Iran’s treatment of protestors and its nuclear intentions. This feud bears political weight, as Leo maintains popularity among American Catholics across party lines.

Importance of Catholic Voters

Catholic voters are crucial for Republicans’ prospects due to their size and political diversity. Catholics constituted 20 percent of voters in the 2024 presidential election and contributed 22 percent to Trump’s coalition, according to the Pew Research Center’s analysis. Trump won 55 percent of the Catholic vote compared to Joe Biden’s 43 percent in 2020.

Catholics are a more politically split group than evangelicals, with noticeable racial differences. While Trump secured 81 percent of the white evangelical Protestant vote in 2024, his support among Catholics was divided, with around 6 in 10 white Catholics and 6 in 10 Latino Catholics making different choices.

Because Catholics represent a substantial electoral portion and are politically diverse, even modest opinion shifts can impact tightly contested districts. The stakes are amplified by the narrow battle for Congress control, as Democrats aim to overturn the Republican House majority.

Despite internal church disputes, Trump maintains substantial support among Christian voters, who credit him with advancing conservative priorities. According to the Pew Research Center, Trump obtained 62 percent of Protestant votes and 55 percent of Catholic votes in 2024. Christian voters constituted 79 percent of his base, showing strong support even with opposition from some church leaders on immigration and foreign policy issues.