South Carolina Republicans Face Uncertain Primary for U.S. Senate Seat

Special Primary Election in South Carolina

On Tuesday, South Carolina Republicans head to the polls in a special primary. They will select their candidate for the U.S. Senate seat previously held for 23 years by the late Lindsey Graham. The race remains competitive and without a clear favorite.

Leading Contenders and Their Strategies

Interim Senator Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister, holds varying leads according to different polls. Some show her ahead by a significant margin, while others indicate a closer race. Representative Ralph Norman has also led in at least one survey, adding to the uncertainty.

With nine candidates on the ballot, a runoff on August 25 could occur if no candidate secures a majority, as required by South Carolina law. Newsweek reached out for comments from the campaigns of Graham, Norman, and Fry.

Darline Graham’s Campaign

Darline Graham, 62, entered the race following her brother’s sudden death on July 11. Governor Henry McMaster appointed her to fill the vacancy temporarily. Despite spending years alongside her brother in politics, this is her first run for office.

Graham emphasizes her commitment to President Donald Trump’s agenda rather than personal ambition. At her first campaign event in Lexington, she expressed her commitment to advancing Trump’s policies.

Trump endorsed Graham days after her appointment and continues to support her. He stated, “There would be nobody better to honor the legacy of her beloved brother, Lindsey.” The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also endorsed her, running TV ads to bolster her campaign.

During a recent debate, Graham reiterated her alignment with Trump’s policies. She expressed support for Trump’s border stance and willingness to end the Senate filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. Additionally, she called for increased transparency in healthcare pricing, emphasizing the financial strain on South Carolina families.

Current Polling and Market Predictions

Polls provide no definitive answers regarding the race’s outcome. Norman, a five-term U.S. House member, presents himself as an experienced conservative. Representative Russell Fry, another contender, aims to secure a runoff spot. Former Governor Mark Sanford, drawing on his name recognition, remains a competitive candidate.

Recent polling by Quantus Insights showed Graham with a lead, garnering 33 percent support among likely voters. Norman and Fry each received 20 percent, while Sanford trailed with 17 percent. The survey by co/efficient also favored Graham, with her leading at 30 percent. In hypothetical runoffs, both Graham and Fry show potential to lead against Norman.

An Emerson College Polling survey for Nexstar Media indicated Norman leading with 22 percent support among likely Republican voters. Graham followed with 19 percent, Fry with 12 percent, and Sanford with 11 percent. A notable percentage of voters remain undecided.

Prediction markets show confidence in Graham. On Kalshi, Graham’s chance of winning stood at roughly 48 percent. On Polymarket, her likelihood of securing the nomination was 46 percent, followed by Fry with 26 percent.

Graham’s Low Profile Campaign

The campaign has focused on whether Graham’s family name and Trump endorsement compensate for her political inexperience. Graham spent years working in South Carolina state government and has only recently moved into the political arena.

While serving as interim senator, she prioritized her responsibilities in Washington over campaigning. “I feel like my job is to be in D.C. working for everyone right now,” Graham said. She expressed regret for limited campaign appearances, having attended only a few forums and debates.

South Carolina has a historical Republican leaning, having not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998. The Republican nominee will face Democratic candidate Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November election. Trump’s substantial win in the state in 2024 further favors the Republicans.