Max Miller Faces Polling Deficit Amid Allegations

Representative Max Miller is trailing Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter in a recent poll of Ohio’s 7th District. Despite facing allegations of abuse, Miller continues his campaign. According to a Tavern Research poll, Poindexter leads by 8 points; the deadline for Miller to step aside passed without his withdrawal. Ohio’s 7th District covers suburban and rural areas near Cleveland and backed Donald Trump by 11 points in past elections.

Emily Moreno, Miller’s ex-wife, alleges he threatened her with a firearm and physically assaulted her, per court documents and police interviews. Moreno claims Miller threw hot water at her, aimed a gun at her, and fractured their child’s collarbone. Miller denies these allegations. His spokesperson stated that courts granting him joint custody indicates the accusations lack credibility. The spokesperson asserted Miller would continue to defend his reputation against these claims.

The allegations have altered the political landscape, with Democrats seeing a chance to win the district in the upcoming election. Despite a Republican lean, Miller’s controversies and national issues like Trump’s declining approval ratings and living costs give Democrats hope.

Tavern Research’s poll shows 54% support for Poindexter versus 46% for Miller. Miller’s unfavorability stands at 50%, while Poindexter’s is at 25%. The survey involved 635 likely voters in early August 2026 and has a 4.8% margin of error.

A co/efficient poll, reported by The New York Times, shows Poindexter leading 47% to 33%. This poll suggests a difficult path for Miller, as 48% of voters are less inclined to support him due to the allegations. This poll surveyed 615 voters and has a 3.94% margin of error.

Election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, now categorize the race as a toss-up, citing the serious nature of the allegations. Erin Covey of Cook Political Report highlighted the district’s competitive nature due to Miller’s controversies.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Poindexter to its “Red to Blue” list, targeting vulnerable Republican-held seats. Representative Suzan DelBene praised Poindexter as a suitable leader for Ohio families in Congress.

Prediction markets also favor Poindexter, indicating an 80% chance of him flipping the seat, according to Kalshi and Polymarket data. These platforms allow traders to speculate on political outcomes, reflecting current sentiment but not guaranteeing future results.

Amid these developments, some Republicans urged Miller to resign. Senator Jon Husted stated on X that those guilty of domestic violence should not serve in Congress. Senator Bernie Moreno, Miller’s ex-wife’s father, echoed calls for Miller’s withdrawal. Yet, Trump refrained from recommending withdrawal, terming the situation unfortunate.

With Miller staying in the race, the Ohio contest might become crucial in deciding House control. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, Democrats 212, with one independent and four vacancies. Democrats need only a few gains to reclaim the majority. The Cook Political Report lists 19 races as toss-ups, pivotal to House control in 2027.