Potential U.S. Military Action Against Cuba and Its Implications

Over 9 million Cubans are facing their sixth nationwide blackout of the year. The Trump administration’s actions toward Cuba suggest that a de facto naval blockade has been in place for seven months. Extensive secondary sanctions target foreign companies in Cuba, while threats of secondary tariffs deter countries from shipping fuel to the island. These measures have inflicted significant damage on Cuba’s economy.

Hospitals are low on resources, food spoils in ports and refrigerators, and transportation is severely disrupted. Most Cubans fear that conditions will worsen before improving. As discussions arise about whether Cuba is the next military target for the U.S., the economic siege impacts the Cuban population as harshly as a military intervention might, without requiring Congressional debate.

The Senate’s pending war powers resolution presents a chance to halt this detrimental situation. It aims to curb the administration’s aggressive regime change plans and open avenues for meaningful negotiations that can facilitate economic and political reform in Cuba. As living conditions in Cuba become unsustainable, there is a pressing demand for change, which politicians across the Florida Straits have long denied Cubans.

Unauthorized U.S. military action, even if limited, could delay these changes, violating the U.S. Constitution. The Senate’s resolution, proposed by Senators Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff, and Ruben Gallego, is essential to prevent further military interventions like those seen before.

The backlash against the Iran war highlights Americans’ reluctance for another costly nation-building effort that endangers U.S. servicemembers and risks a refugee crisis near Florida. It could also strengthen the Cuban regime and set back U.S.-Cuba relations by decades. While House Democrats seem to avoid voting on similar resolutions due to political concerns, the Senate vote represents a crucial opportunity for Congress to reclaim its constitutional authority over war matters in the region.

The administration has reportedly used misleading arguments to justify military actions in Cuba, which have little support outside specific South Florida communities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s claims about Cuba’s threat to U.S. security come alongside anonymous leaks and vague reports of foreign intelligence bases and alleged terrorist sponsorships by Cuba.

Recent months have seen increased U.S. reconnaissance activities around Cuba, plans to deploy the 101st Airborne Division, and judicial actions against former Cuban President Raúl Castro. Despite Cuba’s active intelligence service, it hasn’t managed to lift U.S. embargoes or convince allies to defy U.S. tariffs by supplying fuel to Cuba.

While Havana tries to influence U.S. politics and society, these efforts do not justify unauthorized military action. Instead, they seem to be weak premises for yet another elective war rather than credible threats as per the intelligence community.

A negotiated, bilateral resolution prioritizing the Cuban people’s welfare is crucial for fostering real change on the island. By renewing diplomatic efforts and adhering to the U.S. Constitution, as proposed in the Senate resolution, the administration can better support U.S. security and economic goals in Cuba. Moreover, it can help prevent a self-inflicted humanitarian crisis that could pose a genuine threat to the United States.

Lee Schlenker is a research associate with the Global South program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, focusing on Latin America.

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