South Carolina Senate Race Heats Up as Darline Graham Wins GOP Nomination

Darline Graham secured the Republican nomination for South Carolina’s Senate race on Tuesday. She will challenge Democrat Annie Andrews in the November general election to replace the late U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. Graham, backed by former President Donald Trump, triumphed over Representative Ralph Norman in the primary, garnering about 52% of the vote based on the Associated Press report. The race was declared for Graham at 9:01 p.m. ET.

South Carolina’s special primary election followed the death of Lindsey Graham, who served in the Senate since 2003, passing away on July 11 due to an aortic dissection. As he had obtained the party’s nomination in June for reelection, his death necessitated a new Republican nominee. Trump influenced Republican Governor Henry McMaster to appoint Graham’s sister, Darline Graham, to complete the term temporarily.

Annie Andrews, having secured the Democratic nomination in June, represents a party facing challenges in South Carolina, a state that favored Trump by 18 points in 2024. Despite this, Democrats view the race as potentially competitive due to declining presidential approval ratings fueled by economic anxieties.

In an earlier interview with Newsweek, Andrews expressed optimism about flipping the seat, citing an increase in grassroots fundraising. She emphasized Republican efforts to align with Trump and criticized the administration’s handling of economic issues such as gas prices, suggesting these factors could lead to political shifts.

Polling and Prediction Markets

Polling has been scarce since Lindsey Graham’s death. An internal poll from Andrews’ campaign indicated a close race, though independent polling has yet to validate these findings. Previous internal data showed Graham leading by 3 points, 48% to 45%, according to a survey by Impact Research, conducted among 700 likely voters between June 17 and 22, 2026.

Prediction markets currently favor Republicans significantly. As of Tuesday evening, Kalshi showed an 88% Republican chance of victory, while Polymarket displayed an 87% chance. These markets are known for aggregating real‑money bets on political outcomes, providing a snapshot of trader sentiment, though they are not always accurate predictors.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball also lean towards a Republican win, categorizing the race as solidly GOP.

Democratic Challenges in South Carolina

South Carolina historically presents an uphill battle for Democrats, having last supported a Democratic presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter, in 1976. Recent election cycles have seen consistent Republican victories, with Trump winning by substantial margins in the past three presidential races.

The state last elected a Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, in 1998. Despite Democrats’ attempts to make inroads, the consistently Republican nature of the state endures, driven by demographic factors, including the population distribution and racial polarization.

While urban areas like Charleston and Columbia are more favorable to Democrats, rural zones and suburbs tilt Republican. Jaime Harrison’s high-profile 2020 campaign ended in a 10-point defeat to Lindsey Graham, despite significant fundraising efforts.

Democratic optimism persists, attributable to changing national sentiment. In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump’s disapproval ratings soared, with 65% disapproving of his performance, creating a potentially different electoral landscape for 2026.

Data from Civiqs indicate Trump’s approval at 42% in South Carolina, with 51% disapproving. This environment could allow Democrats to contest more conservative areas, though forecasts predict the state will mostly likely remain Republican after the November midterms.