Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn in Texas GOP Senate Runoff Polls
On the eve of Texas’s Republican U.S. Senate runoff election, Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn according to a new poll reported by Quantus Insights. After neither candidate secured a majority in March, they advanced to a runoff that is attracting national attention. The outcome of this election will indicate the direction of the GOP in Texas and determine who will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in November.
Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement is an influential factor, as he voiced support for Paxton last week. Newsweek inquired with Paxton’s campaign for comments, but Cornyn’s campaign declined to address the recent poll results.
Poll Details
The Quantus Insights poll indicates Paxton holds 52.7% compared to Cornyn’s 43.4%, with 3.9% of respondents undecided. It also reveals that 58.9% of those surveyed stated Trump’s support for Paxton did not affect their vote.
Paxton shows strength among men, women, millennials, Gen Zers, and white GOP voters. Cornyn leads with Hispanic and Asian demographics and ties with Black GOP voters. Paxton is preferred by rural voters, while Cornyn is favored in urban areas.
Campaign efforts continue on social media. Team Cornyn highlighted this election’s importance on X, urging voters to support his bid to continue delivering conservative outcomes. Meanwhile, Paxton encouraged his followers to get more voters to the polls, emphasizing Trump’s endorsement.
TEXAS, REMEMBER! Ken Paxton was a GREAT Attorney General, probably the best in the Country…
This comment from Trump on Truth Social underscores his backing for Paxton, critiquing Cornyn for past conflicts and advocating for Trump’s preferred policies.
Notably, Texas Governor Greg Abbott will not endorse either candidate in this GOP contest. Other Republicans such as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Senator Ted Cruz have also opted out of showing support.
The Quantus poll surveyed 1,018 likely Republican primary runoff voters with a 3.5% margin of error from May 21 to May 23.
Other Polls
Complementing these findings, a Texas Southern University/YouGov poll depicts a close race between Talarico and either Cornyn or Paxton. In this poll, Cornyn leads Talarico by 1%, while Paxton is tied with Talarico at 45%.
A separate poll by Texas Public Opinion Research shows Talarico leads against both Cornyn and Paxton when matched directly. Talarico leads Cornyn 44% to 41%, and he also leads Paxton 46% to 41%.
Another survey from co/efficient last month indicated a narrow margin between Paxton and Cornyn, with Cornyn slightly ahead. In particular, Cornyn had a strong lead among Hispanics in this poll.
The runoff election is set for Tuesday, and the outcomes of these polls remain pivotal as voters prepare to make their decision.