Demographic Shifts: Older Adults Surpass Young Children Globally

For the first time in history, the global population of individuals aged 65 and older has surpassed the number of children aged 5 and under. This significant demographic shift occurred in 2023, earlier than foreseen by experts. The new U.S. Census Bureau report highlights this milestone, attributing it to declining birth rates and longer life expectancies, which extend the impact beyond wealthier nations.

This change marks a reversal in age structure across the globe. It introduces economic and social challenges for governments that may encounter issues like reducing workforces and rising dependency ratios. The report states that population aging symbolizes a significant achievement of human success: increased life expectancy and improved survival rates.

The findings reveal that in 2023, over 71% of the global population resided in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman. This is a stark rise from 45% in 2013. Significant countries like China and India now maintain below-replacement fertility rates, and other populous nations such as Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam have also dipped below this threshold since 2013.

Simultaneously, the longevity of people is increasing. The Census Bureau forecasts that the global population of those aged 65 and older will more than double, growing from about 852 million in 2025 to nearly 2 billion by 2060. By then, older adults are anticipated to constitute almost 20% of the human population, compared to about 10% today.

The shift towards an older global populace presents extensive implications for labor markets, healthcare systems, and pension programs. A smaller demographic of younger people might lead to fewer workers supporting the aging population, exerting financial strain on social welfare systems and long-term care services.

“Countries are addressing old age poverty with various social pension schemes, but demand exceeds supply,” the report concludes. It highlights that, despite progress in high-income nations, informal family care—mostly provided by women—continues to play a critical role.

The study also notes that the COVID-19 pandemic intensified these challenges. Many older individuals experienced job losses, faced barriers in accessing healthcare, lacked digital connectivity, and dealt with isolation. Additionally, natural disasters resulting from extreme temperatures disproportionately affected the elderly population.

Global Demographic Transformations

Demographic changes are not exclusive to Europe or North America. Asia is predicted to experience the largest rise in older adults. Its population aged 65 and above is anticipated to increase from 487 million in 2025 to 1.24 billion by 2060. Africa, though the youngest region, will also witness its senior population more than quadruple during the same period.

The United States is on a similar path. According to Census Bureau projections, Americans aged 65 and older comprised 18.9% of the population in 2025. This percentage is expected to grow to 23.4% by 2060. Simultaneously, the overall U.S. population is forecasted to rise from 344 million in 2025 to 404 million by 2060.