Democrats Gaining in Key Senate and Gubernatorial Races
Recent polling shows Democrats leading in several Senate and gubernatorial races in states that President Donald Trump won in 2020 and 2024. These races, in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas, are significant litmus tests for the political climate during Trump’s second term.
Trump’s Presidency and Political Climate
During Trump’s presidency, his approval rating has declined due to concerns over the economy, tariffs, and the Iran war. Democrats aim to leverage these issues, alongside historical midterm trends favoring the opposition party, to advance in states Trump previously won.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted three gubernatorial races towards Democrats, including Iowa and Alaska. Cook Political Report considers these races toss-ups due to competitive polling by Democratic candidates.
Impact on Control of Power
With two months left until Election Day on November 3, the outcome of these races will influence control in Washington and state governments as Democrats target Republican strongholds.
2020 and 2024 Presidential Elections
Trump won 25 states in 2020, losing to Joe Biden, and 31 states in 2024, defeating Kamala Harris. His 2024 success involved flipping Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Republicans regained the Senate in 2024 and maintained the House. At the state level, as of 2025, Republicans held a majority of governorships.
“In 2024, Trump was a rising tide lifting all Republican boats, but in 2026 he is a falling tide lowering all Republican boats,” said Mark Jones, politics professor at Rice University.
Iowa Governor’s Race
Once a battleground, Iowa saw Obama winning the state in 2008 and 2012. Trump clinched Iowa in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds will not seek reelection, opening up the governor’s race.
Democrat Rob Sand faces Republican Zach Lahn. An Emerson College Poll shows Sand leading at 49% compared to Lahn’s 46%, with 6% undecided. Independent voters prefer Sand over Lahn by 12 points.
Other polls, like Suffolk University, also show Sand leading. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report now rate the race as leaning Democratic due to Sand’s consistent polling advantage.
Ohio Races
Ohio is a crucial state for potential Democratic gains. Trump led Ohio by 11 points in 2024. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are contesting for governor. Polls show a tight race.
For the Senate, Democrat Sherrod Brown seeks to reclaim his seat against Republican Jon Husted. A Fox News poll shows Brown leading at 53% to Husted’s 45%.
North Carolina Senate Race
North Carolina, a traditional battleground, has Democrats targeting the Senate seat. Democrat Roy Cooper runs against Republican Michael Whatley. Polls show Cooper ahead with varying leads.
The Cook Political Report rates this race as Lean Democratic, pointing out its favorability for a Democratic flip.
Texas Senate Race
Despite being a Republican stronghold, Democrats view Texas as competitive. Recent polls show a close race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
Polling suggests a statistical dead heat, with changes in voter support dependent on dissatisfaction with the Trump administration.
Alaska Races
Though a Republican stronghold, Alaska’s ranked choice voting has created openings for Democrats. Former Representative Mary Peltola runs against incumbent Dan Sullivan for Senate. Various polls indicate a tight race.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces Republicans Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. Polling has been limited but suggests competitive dynamics.
November 3 will be pivotal for these contests, providing insight into the current political landscape and potential shifts in power.