The Godfather Test: Holding Russia Accountable

The film “The Godfather” features a powerful scene where Don Vito Corleone warns New York crime families not to hide attacks behind coincidences. He emphasizes accountability should any misfortune befall his son, Michael. Applying a similar principle might benefit NATO and the European Union.

When foreign drones intrude into Eastern European territories, suspect Vladimir Putin. If the Baltic Sea’s power cables are damaged, suspect him again. Disruptions to a government network or explosions at weapons factories should prompt a presumption of Russian involvement.

This reverse strategy contradicts the West’s traditional approach of presuming innocence. The Kremlin is not entitled to judicial protections like a fair trial, which are part of Western democracies. Treating Russia as innocent until proven guilty has become a tactical vulnerability.

Moscow operates in a gray zone, performing actions unclear enough to evade a decisive response.

Russia exploits Western hesitations by structuring operations that avoid plain evidence. Actions are murky enough to prevent consensus on attribution, causing allies to debate rather than act. As months pass, public interest wanes, and the Kremlin moves to its next strategy.

NATO’s current wait-and-see stance allows Russia to continue destabilizing without penalties. The West should instead assume Russian responsibility for significant incidents unless evidence clearly exonerates Russia.

Responses should impose asymmetric costs on Russia, targeting valuable assets and interests rather than mirroring methods. Quiet but impactful actions will leave Russia in a tougher position than before.

Strategic reticence and mystery regarding responses enhance deterrence. The Kremlin’s unpredictability has been its strength; the West should adopt a similar strategy.

Intelligence, judgment, and allied coordination remain crucial. However, the presumption of guilt should drive defensive measures without waiting for courtroom proof.

While risky, a shift in policy might deter further aggression from Russia. Current Western strategies offer space for further escalation by Putin. The West must make consequences of unwelcome actions clear and unavoidable.

Europe’s legal frameworks have not checked Russia’s strategies. The Kremlin skillfully manipulates incomplete information, avoiding accountability. This practice should end.

Presuming Russian responsibility for unexplained incidents affecting its neighbors ensures that their aggression carries consequences. Applying force smartly should make the risks outweigh the benefits for the Kremlin, deterring future aggressions.