Trump’s Approval Rating Declines Among College-Educated Americans

Sharp Decline in Trump’s Approval

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump’s approval rating among college-educated Americans has dropped significantly, creating potential challenges for Republicans as they strive to maintain control of Congress in the upcoming November elections. According to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted from August 21-24, Trump’s approval among college graduates was 34 percent. It fell to 31 percent in a poll from August 28-31 and then to 30 percent in the September 4-8 survey. Over these periods, disapproval increased from 63 percent to 69 percent, causing Trump’s net deficit with the group to widen from 29 points to 39 points.

Political Implications of the Shift

This decline is notable because college graduates are increasingly crucial to the Democratic coalition. Trump’s victory in the 2024 election was largely supported by voters without a four-year degree. Pew Research Center analysis indicates that approximately two-thirds of Trump’s voters did not hold a college degree. In contrast, 48 percent of former Vice President Kamala Harris’ supporters were college graduates. While the surveys did not identify specific reasons for the decline, the consistent downward trend poses an ominous challenge for Republican candidates in races influenced by dissatisfaction with Trump among college-educated voters.

Insights from Recent Polls

The August 21-24 Economist/YouGov poll reported that 34 percent of college graduates approved of Trump’s performance, with 63 percent disapproving. Strong disapproval was at 54 percent. This survey included 1,536 U.S. adults, among them 504 college graduates. Subsequently, Trump’s approval dropped to 31 percent and disapproval rose to 68 percent in a survey of 1,592 adults, including 563 college graduates. By September 4-8, approval declined further to 30 percent while disapproval reached 69 percent, with 61 percent expressing strong disapproval. Comparatively, 41 percent of respondents without a degree approved of Trump, providing him with an 11-point advantage among non-college-educated Americans.

Performance on Key Issues

Trump also received unfavorable approval ratings from college graduates regarding specific issues. Only 28 percent approved of his handling of the economy compared to 72 percent who disapproved. On inflation, his approval was lower, with 25 percent in favor and 73 percent against. Additionally, he received negative ratings on taxes and government spending from college graduates. The surveys had margins of error ranging from approximately 3.4 to 3.5 percentage points. Although specific margins of error for college graduates were not published, the consistent trend indicates a net rating deterioration of 10 points in less than three weeks.

Potential Impact on Midterms

The polls suggest a current preference among college graduates for Democratic congressional candidates. In the September 4-8 survey, 57 percent planned to support the Democratic candidate in their district, while only 28 percent chose the Republican, reflecting a 29-point Democratic advantage. Conversely, Republicans lead among voters without degrees, 39 percent to 33 percent. College graduates appear poised to be a significant presence at the polls, with 78 percent indicating they would definitely vote in November, compared to 67 percent of Americans without degrees. These findings indicate a Democratic edge among college graduates, yet national polls cannot precisely forecast individual congressional races where local factors will shape results.