Russia’s Upcoming Ballistic Missile Test Raises Concerns for Ukraine

Moscow is preparing for a final test of a new ballistic missile that could strike targets hundreds of miles away. This missile potentially maneuvers in ways that could challenge Ukraine’s air defenses, according to a defense analyst.

The Deputy Head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), Vadym Skibitskyi, revealed that Russia plans to conduct final tests of this missile by the end of the year. The missile has a range of up to 800 km and its advanced maneuverability could necessitate more sophisticated interceptors from Ukraine.

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained the implications. He noted potential developments in precision-guided munitions and a move away from unguided weaponry, offering insights into the type of missile Russia may launch.

The missile’s terminal maneuvers can make it hard for defenders to predict its trajectory.

There is a possibility that Russia has discovered ways to produce the missile more cheaply or in larger quantities. Precision-guided munitions are increasingly common, and new missiles may have maneuvering reentry vehicles, presenting challenges for defense systems.

During these missile tests, Russian forces may attempt live-fire demonstrations against targets in western Ukraine. This practice is typical in wartime, where operational testing can be conducted in real-time scenarios.

The tested missile falls into a category once prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty). This treaty, signed in 1987, required the elimination of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.

The United States withdrew from the treaty in 2019, alleging Russian violations. Russia’s development of missiles in this range can be seen as filling gaps left by the treaty’s dissolution.

Missile and artillery attacks have been central to Russia’s campaign against Ukraine since 2022. Reports indicate that Russia’s missile production has reached levels beyond monthly targets, with thousands fired since the start of 2026.

Ukraine faces ongoing challenges as Russia increases its missile capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed concerns about the strain on air defenses.

I want to have 100-120 interceptor missiles for these difficult months, Zelenskyy said.

Concerns are widespread, especially in areas like Poland, Romania, and the Baltics, where there is apprehension about Russian missile capabilities. Russia remains on a wartime footing, ramping up its defense production.