Study: Abortion Messaging Influences Voter Support in North Carolina

Fox News Report: A study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America highlighted how messaging on abortion impacts voter support in North Carolina.

The study found that emphasizing former Gov. Roy Cooper’s abortion record shifted voter support towards the Republican candidate, Michael Whatley. A focus on federal abortion legislation proved most effective.

The group has reached over 770,000 homes across North Carolina, implementing a new voter-contact strategy in this competitive Senate race. Republicans aim to maintain their majority in the Senate, filling the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.

Voter Targeting: Canvassers focus on persuadable and low-turnout voters, highlighting Cooper’s support for federal abortion legislation and his veto of state-level abortion restrictions. Cooper’s veto of a law banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy was overridden by the Republican-controlled General Assembly. This action gained attention due to the popularity of the 12-week limit among voters.

SBA Pro-Life America President, Marjorie Dannenfelser, noted that Cooper’s veto was unpopular, influencing voter opinions. An additional issue was Cooper’s veto of a bill ensuring care for babies born alive following attempted abortions.

Study Insights: Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America partnered with Evolving Strategies to conduct a randomized-controlled trial. They tested the effectiveness of four different abortion messages about Senate candidates’ positions. The online panel comprised 2,607 registered voters, matched to their voter file and consumer data.

Response data measured candidates and policy support after voters read these messages, using predictive modeling to estimate effects on persuadable voters.

Targeting Strategy: The group aims to find voters whose opinions can be influenced, regardless of party affiliation. They use consumer data to profile voters, targeting them via various communication methods.

Respondents were exposed to four messages — “Fed,” “Record,” “Soft Positive,” and “Hard Positive,” or a control message. The “Fed” message criticized Cooper’s support for federal legislation, arguing it could undermine state autonomy in abortion law. The “Record” message targeted Cooper’s gubernatorial abortion decisions, portraying him as an extremist. Both messages performed best, shifting the Republican vote margin by +4.9 points and +3.2 points, respectively.

Outcome: The study found that strategic messaging substantially influences voter support, with more impact expected among key targets — potentially shifting Republican vote margin by +12 points or more.

Overall, these messages resonate with voters who feel left behind by the Democratic Party, indicating abortion remains a powerful issue in setting voter preferences in North Carolina.