Talarico’s Lead Over Paxton Narrows in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico’s advantage over Ken Paxton in the critical Texas Senate race has decreased by one point, as reported by two recent opinion polls. The polls also indicate a reduction in the number of undecided Texas voters. Democrats aim to gain Senate control in the November midterms, and a Texas win, traditionally a Republican bastion with its last Democratic senator elected in 1988, could greatly enhance their prospects.

The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey, released on Friday, gathered data from 1,007 likely Texas voters between September 19 and 22. With a margin of error of 3.6 percent, the poll shows state Representative Talarico leading Texas Attorney General Paxton by five points, securing 49 percent of the vote compared to Paxton’s 44 percent. Previously, a survey conducted from August 21 to 24 had reported Talarico with a six-point lead, holding 48 percent of the vote against Paxton’s 42 percent.

The proportion of undecided voters has dropped notably from seven percent in August to three percent currently. Additionally, Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has gained two percentage points. Despite these changes, Talarico’s support decrease remains within the margin of error.

Separately, a new Texas Southern University survey shows Talarico ahead by only one point, with 47 percent of the vote to Paxton’s 46 percent and three percent for Brown. This survey, gathering responses from 1,800 likely Texan voters between September 15 and 19, bears a 2.31 percent margin of error. In contrast, the university’s previous poll from July 27 to 30, surveying 1,200 likely voters, recorded a two-point lead for Talarico, with 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent and two percent for Brown. Again, the decrease in Talarico’s lead is within the margin of error, while undecided voter proportion decreased from six percent to four percent.

Newsweek reached out to the Talarico and Paxton senate campaigns for comment via email on Saturday outside of standard office hours.

Other Polls Indicate a Talarico Advantage

Talarico maintains a lead over Paxton according to eight different pollsters, although several results fall within the margin of error, making them too close to conclusively call.

An Emerson College poll conducted between September 12 and 14 shows Talarico with a slight one-point lead, claiming 47 percent of the vote versus Paxton’s 46 percent. This poll surveyed 1,000 voters and has a margin of error of three percentage points. AARP also conducted a survey from August 30 to September 1 among 895 likely voters, indicating a four-point lead for Talarico with a 3.3-point margin of error. Likewise, a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted from August 27 to September 4, reports Talarico ahead by five points with a 3.6-point margin of error.

Debate Challenge

On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News during his appearance at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. He accused Paxton of avoiding debates, stating, “So let’s go to Ken Paxton’s safe space. Let’s do Bret Baier on Fox News. I’ll go into the lions den.”

Funding

According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data up to June 30, Talarico’s campaign collected $31,853,507, significantly exceeding Paxton’s $9,147,100. The FEC statistics indicated that 45 percent of donations to Talarico’s campaign came from out-of-state contributors, with most from California. In contrast, only 17.1 percent of Paxton’s donations originated from outside Texas.

Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.