Winter Predictions: Almanacs vs. National Weather Service

Winter is approaching, and predictions for the 2026-2027 season come from various sources. While the calendar still reads September, signs of the changing season are becoming evident. Farmland colors shift, and jackets remain in closets for now. But we’re closer than ever to winter.

Almanac Predictions

Both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac have issued forecasts for winter. The Farmers’ Almanac calls for a mix of snow, sleet, and surprises. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts mild conditions but colder, snowier spots.

For regional specifics, the Farmers’ Almanac forecasts snowy precipitation in the upper Plains and Midwest. The Gulf Coast and southern East Coast will be wet. New England might face coastal storms. The Old Farmer’s Almanac suggests a cold winter for the Ohio Valley and southern New England, while Hawaii might be cool. Dry conditions are expected in most of the Plains. Wet conditions are likely in the Pacific Coast, parts of the Gulf, and Midwest.

Accuracy and Research

Both almanacs claim 80% accuracy. However, research shows the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions are correct about half the time. Meteorologist Rich Segal notes forecasting long-term is akin to a gamble.

National Weather Service Outlook

The National Weather Service presents long-range forecasts that can change. They do not predict specific events like intense winter storms. Jon Gottschalck from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center explains forecasting specific events far ahead is not possible.

According to NOAA’s seasonal forecasts, most of the U.S. may experience warmer-than-normal temperatures due to a strong El Niño. The southern states are expected to receive above-average precipitation from October to December, with similar expectations for November, December, and January.

El Niño’s Impact

The strong El Niño pattern could persist into spring 2027. Its influence varies across regions. Northern states may be drier and warmer than normal, while southern states might be cooler and wetter. Brian James, Nexstar chief meteorologist, believes the overall pattern may not favor heavy snowfall in northern areas, although some cold air and snow are still likely.

Trust in Almanac Predictions

The reliability of almanac predictions is subjective. Farmers’ Almanac editor Sandi Duncan acknowledges the unpredictability of forecasting, despite refining methods continuously. The forecasts have been useful for many planners and outdoor enthusiasts over generations, but nature can be unpredictable.