President Trump’s Approval Ratings One Month Before Midterm Elections

With the midterm elections fast approaching in November, President Donald Trump finds himself facing challenging approval ratings in the United States. Recent polling data indicates Trump is struggling in 39 states, including all major battleground states. This analysis is based on comprehensive data collected by Civiqs, involving responses from 133,869 registered voters between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026. Newsweek’s analysis provides a comparison of the current state-level approval ratings with those at the start of Trump’s second term.

Current Approval Ratings

Nationally, Trump’s job performance rating stands at 34% approval against 60% disapproval, resulting in a net approval rating of -26. For every major battleground state, the approval ratings are negative. Georgia leads with a net rating of -25, followed closely by Michigan and Nevada at -24 and Pennsylvania at -22. Notably, Kentucky has experienced a significant drop of 33 points, declining from +23 to -10. Wyoming remains the most supportive state for Trump, with a net rating of +18, followed by North Dakota at +15.

Demographic Insights

Demographic data offers insights into the trends behind these ratings. Younger voters, aged 18 to 34, show strong disapproval, with only 20% approving of Trump’s performance and 73% disapproving. Voters aged 35 to 49 display 26% approval and 66% disapproval. Among independents, 65% disapprove, while Republicans display 78% approval. Female voters show 65% disapproval, compared to a 54% to 39% split among male voters. Education also plays a role; 24% of postgraduates approve compared to 32% of college graduates and 37% of those without a college degree, though disapproval exceeds approval in all these groups. Ethnic breakdowns reveal 90% disapproval among Black voters, 70% among Hispanic voters, and 52% among White voters.

Battleground States and Shifts

The battleground states present significant challenges. Trump’s latest ratings are:

• Arizona: -18
• Florida: -16
• Georgia: -25
• Michigan: -24
• Nevada: -24
• North Carolina: -15
• Ohio: -17
• Pennsylvania: -22
• Wisconsin: -18

States like Florida, which had a positive net rating of +9, have now seen a decline to -16, and Ohio has shifted from +8 to -17. These figures do not predict congressional race outcomes but highlight the challenging environment for Republicans.

Declines Across States

Across the board, Trump’s net approval has declined compared to January 20, 2025. Notable decreases include:

• Kentucky: +23 to -10 (down 33 points)
• Wyoming: +47 to +18 (down 29 points)
• Oklahoma: +31 to +4 (down 27 points)
• Tennessee: +25 to -2 (down 27 points)
• Texas: +6 to -21 (down 27 points)
• Idaho: +34 to +8 (down 26 points)
• Alaska: +9 to -6 (down 25 points)

Many declines occurred in states that initially showed strong support, rather than in Democratic strongholds.

Deep Blue States

Trump’s weakest performance remains in states with a strong Democratic base, such as Hawaii, which records the lowest net approval at -58. Maryland follows at -52, and Vermont at -51. Other states like California and Massachusetts show net approvals of -47 and -46 respectively.

White House Reaction

The White House has downplayed polling data, referencing Trump’s 2024 election win as a reflection of public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle highlights Trump’s electoral victory with nearly 80 million votes as evidence of a mandate. Ingle underscores Trump’s focus on job creation, reducing inflation, and enhancing housing affordability, claiming historic progress has been made.

For additional insights, Newsweek contacted the White House but did not receive further comment.