Iowa Senate Race: Polls Show Turek Versus Hinson
A recent poll reveals that Democrat Josh Turek gains ground among voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election as he competes to become Iowa’s next U.S. senator. Iowa is a battleground for this year’s Senate races, with Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson contending for the seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
The race remains close following their recent debate where tariffs, immigration, and voting records were significant topics. Both candidates also sparred over Iowa’s economic direction, addressing inflation and rising fuel concerns.
The latest YouGov poll surveyed 2,245 likely Iowa voters from October 6 to October 12. Turek leads Hinson by 47 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent still undecided. The poll suggests Turek is drawing support from voters who previously chose Trump, with 41 percent backing Biden’s former Vice President, Kamala Harris, against 52 percent for Trump.
Turek’s lead in the YouGov poll is narrower compared to other recent polls. Suffolk University, from October 1 to October 4, showed Turek with a 4-point advantage over Hinson at 48 percent to 44 percent. Other polls show different results, including a Beacon Research survey from September 24 to September 28, where Turek leads 49 percent to 47 percent.
An InsiderAdvantage poll held on September 22 and September 23 shows Turek holding a 1-point edge, while a Marist University poll from September 17 to September 20 gives Turek an 8-point lead over Hinson.
Conversely, some polls indicate Hinson’s lead. Emerson College, from October 5 and October 6, favored Hinson at 47 percent to Turek’s 45 percent. A CNN poll conducted from September 29 to October 5 also showed Hinson with a 2-point lead. Similar trends appeared in Quantus Insights and New York Times/Siena University polls.
Newsweek contacted the campaigns for Turek and Hinson by email. The second debate held Tuesday night did not impact the YouGov poll outcomes.
The poll provides some perspective on Trump’s approval in Iowa. A majority disapprove of his presidency, with 29 percent strongly approving and 17 percent somewhat approving. Meanwhile, 49 percent strongly disapprove.
Prediction markets paint a different picture, with Hinson showing stronger support. Polymarket predicts Hinson winning at 57 percent to Turek’s 42 percent, while Kalshi shows Hinson at 58 percent to Turek’s 42 percent.
Significance of the Iowa Senate Race
These midterm elections could shift House and Senate control due to economic concerns, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Iowa, despite its Republican Senate voting pattern since 2008, has historically leaned towards presidential candidates from both parties. Previous elections saw Trump winning Iowa, while Barack Obama twice claimed victory preceding him.
For Turek, the poll results offer optimism. Democrats last won an Iowa Senate election 18 years ago with Tom Harkin defeating Christopher Reed. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst have since maintained Republican dominance over Iowa’s Senate seats.
In Iowa, early voting started on Tuesday and will continue through November 2, with the midterm elections set for November 3.