Potential Democratic Upset in Mississippi Senate Race
A remarkable shift may occur in Mississippi politics as a Democrat threatens to overturn the state’s traditional voting patterns. A recent poll indicates a close contest in the upcoming Senate race, with Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith holding a narrow lead over challenger Scott Colom.
The Wedgewood Polls survey reveals Hyde-Smith leading Colom by a slim margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. This difference falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4.3 points. The survey included 511 likely voters and was conducted from October 12 to 14.
This poll result led Sabato’s Crystal Ball to adjust the race’s classification from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Although Hyde-Smith remains the favorite, the race shows increased competitiveness.
An analysis of the poll’s details shows a divided electorate. Colom has garnered 91 percent support among Black voters and leads significantly among younger voters aged 18 to 29, with 56 percent compared to Hyde-Smith’s 44 percent. Conversely, Hyde-Smith has strong support from white voters at 78 percent and from respondents who supported Donald Trump in 2024, with 88 percent backing her. Black voters account for 37 percent of the poll’s weighted sample.
The survey, independently developed by Wedgewood Polls, employed an online panel to recruit participants. It took into account registered voters who are likely to vote and adjusted for gender, age, race, ethnicity, and education. Margins of error are larger for individual subgroups.
This development signals a rise in Democratic interest in Mississippi, a state long dominated by Republicans in the Senate. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported increased financial support from Democratic donors for the race, viewing it as a potential target.
However, it’s important to note that the poll focused solely on Hyde-Smith and Colom, with independent candidate Ty Pinkins also appearing on the November 3 ballot. Therefore, the head-to-head poll results provide an incomplete picture of the entire race.
If Colom wins, he would become the first Democratic senator from Mississippi since 1982. Despite the promising figures, one poll within the margin of error is not enough to establish a definitive trend.
This story is still unfolding. More updates will be provided as information comes in.