Potential Impacts of Hurricane Marie on Southern California

Forecasting Hurricane Marie’s Path

The trajectory of Hurricane Marie remains uncertain, but it poses potential risks for Southern California during the Labor Day weekend. Forecasters predict increased humidity and showers, alongside large waves and hazardous rip currents for south-facing beaches.

Possibility of Landfall

Direct landfall by a hurricane-strength Marie in California is improbable, with only a 10% chance of a tropical storm reaching the coast. UC climate scientist Daniel Swain noted a 20% to 25% chance of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms capable of causing floods, contrasted with a similar chance of no rain.

Projections suggest Hurricane Marie could move west of Baja California into open waters. Robbie Berg, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center, mentioned Marie will likely track northwest, avoiding land. As of Wednesday morning, Marie had sustained winds of 70 mph and was set to become a hurricane later that day.

Rain Expectations for Southern California

The National Weather Service in Oxnard indicated a low chance of moderate-to-heavy rain, with potential flooding and thunderstorms. The forecast suggests a higher likelihood of light rain disrupting outdoor events, along with impactful coastal flooding over the weekend.

From Saturday to Tuesday, there’s a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rain affecting holiday activities. The odds of widespread moderate-to-heavy rain causing localized flooding stand at 10% to 20%.

For San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties, widespread showers are anticipated over the weekend. Forecasters expect rainfalls of under an inch.

In the San Joaquin Valley, Mojave Desert, and Sierra Nevada, rain chances exist. Along the coast, significant rainfall from Marie might not travel north past the Central Coast, although swells may reach the Bay Area.

Beach Conditions and Risks

Large waves and strong rip currents are predicted. Visitors are advised to ensure lifeguard presence due to heightened ocean drowning risks. The strongest swells should occur Sunday and Monday.

“Stay away from the water’s edge. Never turn your back to the ocean. Avoid rocks and jetties.”

Coastal Flooding Considerations

Coastal flooding could arise from large surf combined with high tides from the holiday weekend through Tuesday. Areas like Long Beach’s Alamitos Peninsula, Malibu, Point Mugu, Catalina Island’s Avalon, and parts of Santa Barbara may be vulnerable.

Potential Fire Weather Risks

Marie’s trajectory might elevate fire weather danger with gusty offshore winds and wildfire threats before rain arrives. Winds between 10% to 15% strength from the east are possible, presenting risks similar to conditions ahead of the 2023 Maui fire.

High fire weather confidence exists for the Santa Ana and San Bernardino mountains, Inland Empire, Riverside and San Diego mountains, and desert areas.

Remain Informed

The forecast could change significantly with alterations to Marie’s path. Monitoring updates from the National Weather Service is advised.