Shifts in Trump’s Approval Among Non-MAGA Republicans Before Midterms

President Donald Trump’s approval rating among non-MAGA Republicans turned negative according to an October Fox News Poll. This indicates growing dissatisfaction within a part of his party that holds less ideologically aligned views. This is significant weeks before the midterms, as Republican candidates need party unity while addressing concerns about rising living costs.

GOP candidates in closely contested House and Senate races could encounter weaker enthusiasm or more split-ticket voting among non-MAGA Republicans. A White House spokesman, Davis Ingle, stated that Trump has built a strong coalition through the MAGA movement, calling him the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader and best motivator.” Ingle emphasized Trump’s commitment to maintaining Republican majorities, citing achievements in taxes, border security, and employment. The midterms, according to Ingle, present voters with a choice between Trump’s “commonsense agenda” and Democratic policies.

Need-To-Know Numbers

Only 18% of voters reported that their family was better off than two years ago, per the new Fox News poll. Trump received a 22% approval rating for handling inflation, while 77% disapproved. In October, 72% of MAGA Republicans were certain to vote, compared to 52% of non-MAGA Republicans. Additionally, 60% of voters identified living costs as the country’s top economic issue, 74% had a negative view of the economy, and 53% anticipated economic decline over the coming year.

Implications of the Divide

Presidential disapproval doesn’t mean automatic support for Democratic candidates, but decreased enthusiasm among Republican voters could influence close races.

The September Fox News Poll showed 39% approving Trump’s performance with a 61% disapproval, while the October poll reflected a drop to 36% approval and 64% disapproval. Within the non-MAGA Republicans, approval decreased from 53% to 47%, with disapproval growing from 46% to 52%.

MAGA Republicans’ support remained high with 95% approving. However, this poses a dilemma for GOP candidates—distancing from Trump may upset MAGA supporters, while aligning closely could alienate other Republicans. Only 76% of Republicans overall approved of Trump, a decrease from 79%.

Economic Strains

Economic conditions significantly influence Trump’s approval ratings. Nearly 70% disapproved of Trump’s economic management, according to the October Fox News Poll. Household financial stress raises challenges for Republicans seeking to retain office. Economic dissatisfaction might not lead to support for Democrats but could affect voter turnout or enthusiasm for Republican candidates.

Voter Turnout Concerns

Low enthusiasm among non-MAGA Republicans might threaten GOP candidates. A significant gap in voting certainty exists: 72% of MAGA Republicans were sure of voting, compared to 52% of non-MAGA Republicans. This pattern was similar in September polling, indicating potential turnout issues.

These survey results reflect declared voting intentions, not guaranteed turnout. Loyal supporters of Trump appear more motivated than less Trump-aligned Republicans. However, the surveys only included registered voters nationally and hold larger sampling errors for subgroups.

Cautionary Notes

These polls are not predictive of behavior in specific contests. A voter may disapprove of Trump but still back a Republican candidate based on party loyalty, local matters, or Congressional control desires. Therefore, this poll should be considered a warning within the GOP coalition. Future polling and final voter turnout will decide the true impact.

Newsweek’s team used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story.