Trump Faces Divided Political Landscape Ahead of 2026 Midterms

With 100 days until the 2026 midterm elections, new polling indicates that President Donald Trump is navigating a sharply divided political environment. The landscape is notably less favorable for him than when he began his current term.

Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of 118,886 registered voters provides the data, which a Newsweek analysis uses to compare Trump’s approval rating from July 22, 2026, to January 20, 2025, the initial day of his second term. The net approval rating is determined by subtracting the disapproval percentage from the approval percentage.

Nationally, Trump holds a 38 percent approval rate against a 57 percent disapproval, resulting in a net margin of -19. The state-by-state analysis presents a similar picture, with Trump’s performance strongest in traditional Republican states, yet still negative in crucial battleground states poised to shape future political power.

Key Points

• Trump is polling negatively in major swing states with 100 days left before the midterm elections.
• States starting with positive net approval ratings have flipped to unfavorable standings since Trump’s second term began.
• The largest declines have taken place in states where Trump formerly had robust support.
• Skepticism remains pronounced among younger voters, independents, and those with postgraduate education.

Why This Matters

Trump’s poor ratings in swing states suggest even minor changes in voter sentiment could decide congressional control after the November 3 midterms.

The accompanying map illustrates where Trump’s approval ratings stand as voters prepare to head to the polls, highlighting key states.

Continued Support in Historically Republican States

Trump’s highest approval ratings are concentrated in Republican-leaning areas. Wyoming leads with a net approval of +26, followed by North Dakota and West Virginia each at +18, Alabama at +15, and Idaho at +14. South Dakota and Oklahoma also show strong support at +13 and +12, respectively.

Despite maintaining robust backing in these states, many have experienced significant declines since early 2025. Wyoming dropped 21 points from a +47 net approval. Idaho fell 20 points from +34, and West Virginia decreased by 17 points from +35. Kentucky, notably, shifted from +23 to -1.

Challenges in Swing States

The most impactful developments have transpired in states pivotal in national elections. Trump is underwater in all major battlegrounds:

• Arizona: -11
• Georgia: -21
• Nevada: -16
• North Carolina: -13
• Pennsylvania: -12
• Wisconsin: -14
• Florida: -9
• Ohio: -8

Significantly altered landscapes include Florida, moving from +9 to -9, and Ohio, shifting from +8 to -8. Nevada fell from 0 to -16, while North Carolina went from 0 to -13. These shifts illustrate consistent challenges prior to the midterms.

Demographic Data Insights

Demographics reveal much about state-level dynamics. Among voters aged 18 to 34, Trump’s approval is just 25 percent, with a 69 percent disapproval rate. Among 35 to 49-year-olds, 31 percent approve while 61 percent disapprove.

Independents show 32 percent support and 60 percent disapproval. Women disapprove by a wide margin, 63-to-32. Meanwhile, male approval is more balanced at 49 percent disapprove and 45 percent approve.

Education plays a crucial role. Among postgraduates, approval is at 27 percent and disapproval at 69 percent. For non-college graduates, approval increases slightly to 42 percent compared to 53 percent disapproval.

Significant State-Level Declines

Trump’s net approval is lower in every state compared to January 20, 2025, with substantial drops reported in once-supportive regions:

• Kentucky: +23 to -1
• Wyoming: +47 to +26
• Florida: +9 to -9
• Idaho: +34 to +14
• West Virginia: +35 to +18
• Tennessee: +25 to +8
• Texas: +6 to -10
• Nevada: 0 to -16
• Georgia: -4 to -21
• Ohio: +8 to -8

These changes emphasize that even traditionally strong areas for Trump are seeing declines, reinforcing the precarious political climate pre-midterms.

Democratic States Stand Firm

Support remains lowest in Democratic-leaning states. Hawaii posts the greatest negative net approval at -59, trailed by Vermont and Maryland. California, Massachusetts, Washington, and New York also show significant disapproval figures.

In these states, opposition to Trump persists, having been strongly negative at the beginning of his term.

Central U.S. Shows Mixed Results

Many states near a neutral stance reflect a less stable political map. Indiana shows +5, Utah +6, Kansas +7. Nebraska is at -1, Louisiana -3, and South Carolina -4. These findings suggest that states’ positions could shift swiftly with minimal changes in voter sentiment.

A Familiar, Yet Weaker Map

Trump’s current electoral map echoes his earlier term’s layout, with sustained strongholds in Republican states and firm opposition in Democratic regions. Yet the size of favorable margins has decreased.

Trump began his second term competitively in several battlegrounds but now faces narrower leads or deficits. This situation results in an electoral map that maintains its general partisan divisions but with less certainty.

White House Response

The White House continues to downplay polling fluctuations, citing Trump’s 2024 election win as the most definitive public support measure.

Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizes the administration’s achievements in employment, inflation, and housing. In repeated statements, Ingle argues Trump has accomplished unprecedented work for Americans and promises more as the agenda progresses.

For more on this story, contact Newsweek editor Edward Pearcey.