2026 Western Conference Finals Spurs vs. Thunder
The anticipated intensity of the 2026 Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder reached Game 7, though it hasn’t matched the excitement of the thrilling Game 1 double-overtime opener. The last four games saw wins alternating, but each finished with a gap of at least 13 points. The series’ primary narrative has unfortunately been Oklahoma City’s flopping, detracting from the gameplay enjoyment for dedicated NBA enthusiasts.
Still, the prospect of an engaging finale could overshadow previous disappointments. DraftKings expects a close contest, with Oklahoma City favored at -162 on the moneyline and a spread of -3.5. The total is set at 212.5 as of Friday afternoon.
SPURS BLOW OUT THUNDER, FORCE GAME 7 AS VICTOR WEMBANYAMA LEADS THE WAY WITH 28-POINT DOUBLE-DOUBLE
In Game 6, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Oklahoma City was notably defended by San Antonio’s Stephon Castle at Frost Bank Center in Texas. This sets the stage for another thrilling encounter in Game 7.
Here is my betting card for the series finale between the Spurs and Thunder on Saturday.
Betting Slip for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7
- San Antonio Spurs +3.5 (-108) at DraftKings, betting 1.08 units.
- OVER 212.5 (-110) at DraftKings, betting 1.1 units.
- Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-104) at DraftKings, betting 0.52 units.
- Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 assists (-115) at FanDuel, betting 0.58 units.
San Antonio Spurs +3.5
My selection of San Antonio to reach the 2026 NBA Finals rests on four factors:
- The Spurs are outperforming in three of the four key areas, exhibiting superior net efficiency.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s performance has fallen short.
- Chet Holmgren appears unnerved.
- The Thunder relies on favorable referee decisions to succeed against San Antonio.
Despite San Antonio’s initial setback due to De’Aaron Fox missing Games 1 and 2, his return improved ball handling. This bolsters their chances in the half-court, countering Oklahoma City’s strength in converting turnovers into points. Gilgeous-Alexander, once an offensive powerhouse, struggles within this matchup, evident in his drop to 24.3 points per game on 37.9% shooting, down from his regular-season 31.1 PPG.
Meanwhile, Chet Holmgren’s lackluster performance has been notable. As Oklahoma City endures injuries, Holmgren’s hesitant play exacerbates the Thunder’s woes. Additionally, the Thunder’s approach, focusing on drawing fouls rather than pure gameplay, has not played to their advantage against San Antonio’s size and strength. The Spurs’ free-throw advantage mirrors their physical dominance.
Despite potential surprises from Oklahoma City’s bench, the Spurs remain the superior team, guided by their standout player.
OVER 212.5
Geoff Clark’s thorough breakdown in the Over bet for Game 7 between the Spurs and Thunder in the Western Conference Finals. This is expected to be a high-scoring match.
Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds, Assists
Isaiah Hartenstein has frequently exceeded this combined stat line during this series. His limited play in Games 1 and 6 was more a strategy shift. Hartenstein’s physicality is crucial in combating San Antonio’s prowess in the paint, especially against Victor Wembanyama. His regular-season encounters with San Antonio have shown at least 20 combined points, rebounds, and assists thrice. Presently, Hartenstein leads in the Thunder’s rebounding rate in this series.
Spurs PG De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists
Hoping Fox prioritizes distributing over shooting. With lob threats like Wembanyama, shooters such as Devin Vassell, and his role in facilitating, his assist potential is promising. Fox has consistently reached over 6 assists in three of the four games in this series.
For more insights on betting and sports perceptions, follow Geoff Clark on X @Geoffery-Clark or listen to his OutKick Bets Podcast.