NOAA Predicts Warmer Summer Temperatures Across the U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its three-month forecast on June 18, indicating a significant probability of above-normal temperatures for much of the United States. Summer officially begins on June 21, bringing the heat along with it.

The forecast highlights that Oregon and Washington are most likely to experience temperatures surpassing the historical average in July, August, and September. In contrast, Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri are forecasted to have around a 30% chance of cooler-than-average temperatures, based on historical data from 1991 to 2020.

Scott Handel, a meteorologist from the National Weather Service, stated, “What we’re seeing for the July, August, September time period is that for the majority of the country the trend has been warmer.”

Summer 2026 Fire and Drought Risks

NOAA’s predictions for precipitation over the next three months suggest little deviation from historical averages across the United States. However, the forecast indicates above-average precipitation for Southern California, Utah, Arizona, and parts of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico. This rainfall could provide relief to areas suffering from drought and facing fire risks.

Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, explained that the anticipated increase in rainfall in these states results from a combination of monsoon moisture and potential east Pacific tropical storms. Despite the increase in rainfall, AccuWeather’s long-range forecast identifies a higher fire risk in the Northwest throughout the fall due to warmer and drier conditions.

The northern Rockies face an intensifying drought, according to Merrill. He noted that dry thunderstorms at the beginning of the monsoon season in the Southwest could trigger wildfires. During late July into August, increased moisture may transform the wildfire risk into potential flooding events.

The southwest can see a big target that’s the summer going from very dry, very hot, with a wildfire risk to all of a sudden having episodes of flooding, Merrill said. We also see an elevated flooding risk from northern Texas all the way into the Midwest.