AOC and Ossoff Edge Closer to Newsom in 2028 Democratic Race

Recent trends in Polymarket’s 2028 Democratic presidential primary prediction market show Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff gaining ground on California Governor Gavin Newsom. As potential candidates prepare to announce their campaigns shortly after the midterms, the race remains dynamic. Some candidates are already communicating their messages and visiting primary states to increase visibility and engage voters.

Prediction markets offer insights into public sentiment regarding the 2028 candidates. These platforms facilitate trading on political outcomes, converting real-money bets into probability estimates. Prices shift with changes in polling, fundraising, candidate news, and political developments. While informative, these markets do not always predict the future precisely. Newsweek has contacted spokespeople for Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Ossoff seeking comments.

Polymarket Predictions

Polymarket’s latest data shows Ocasio-Cortez, a prominent figure among progressives, and Ossoff gaining a stronger presence in the primary. As of Tuesday, Ocasio-Cortez had a 15% chance of winning, up from 9% the previous month. Ossoff had risen to a 14% chance from under 6%. In comparison, Newsom’s probabilities decreased from 25% to 18%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris remained steady at approximately 8%.

Kalshi’s market exhibited similar trends, with Ocasio-Cortez’s chances increasing from 10% in June to 16% on Tuesday, and Ossoff rising from 9% to 14%. Newsom’s odds remained at 21 to 22% in this period.

Polling Data

Despite prediction markets, Harris continues to lead recent polls. A FocalData survey indicated her support at 33%, ahead of Newsom’s 15%, Ocasio-Cortez’s 9%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s 8%. Other contenders included Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 7% and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at 5%, among others. The poll involved 764 registered voters from June 26 to 30.

Another poll by McLaughlin showed Harris with 26% support, Newsom at 16%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 9%. Buttigieg had 8%. The poll, surveying 1,000 general election voters from June 17-23, also highlighted candidates like Illinois Governor Pritzker and Senator Cory Booker at 5% each.

Candidates’ Statements

Some Democrats are considering a 2028 run. Harris implied a potential candidacy when speaking with Reverend Al Sharpton, highlighting her past experiences as Vice President. Newsom, in a Wall Street Journal interview, acknowledged it as a possible path without formally committing.

Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation with David Axelrod, emphasizing transformative policies over personal ambition. Ossoff dismissed plans for a 2028 run, focusing on his Georgia Senate reelection.

Others, like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, explicitly declined involvement in the 2028 presidential race.