Trump’s Approval Ratings Decline in Key States Ahead of Midterms

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped in at least 11 states he won by double digits in the 2024 election. This indicates growing dissatisfaction with his performance as the midterm elections approach, even in areas where his support has been strong.

Nationally, Trump’s approval stands at 36%, while his disapproval is at 59%, resulting in a net approval rating of -24. This data comes from Civiqs’ online poll of registered voters, which has gathered over 120,000 responses since January 20, 2025, when Trump began his second term.

Trump’s approval is highest in Republican-leaning states, yet in 11 states he won by at least 10 points against Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in 2024, his approval is now underwater. This decline could significantly impact the upcoming midterm elections, where shifts in voter sentiment might influence the fight for control of Congress.

Trump’s Diminishing Approval

Trump initially maintained positive approval ratings in states he won by 10 points in 2024. However, his ratings have since dropped below water in 11 of these states. Factors such as his tariffs on U.S. trading partners and a conflict with Iran have contributed to this decline.

The Civiqs poll highlights the following states where Trump’s approval is negative:

• Alaska: -14 (40% approve, 54% disapprove)
• Florida: -12 (42% approve, 54% disapprove)
• Iowa: -14 (44% approve, 49% disapprove)
• Kentucky: -3 (39% approve, 53% disapprove)
• Louisiana: -4 (45% approve, 49% disapprove)
• Missouri: -7 (44% approve, 51% disapprove)
• Mississippi: -1 (47% approve, 48% disapprove)
• Nebraska: -3 (45% approve, 48% disapprove)
• Ohio: -13 (40% approve, 53% disapprove)
• South Carolina: -9 (42% approve, 51% disapprove)
• Texas: -13 (40% approve, 54% disapprove)

Even in states where Trump’s approval started high, declines are evident. He began his term with a net approval of +45 in Wyoming and +31 in North Dakota, now reduced to +19 in both states.

Key Races to Monitor

Democrats aim to secure four seats in November to gain Senate control. This makes races in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas crucial. In Iowa, a close contest takes place between Democratic state Representative Josh Turek and incumbent Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown contends with Republican Jon Husted. Texas sees Democratic state Representative James Talarico taking on Republican Ken Paxton, the attorney general. All these states, initially secured by Trump in 2024, now show his approval underwater.

Important Battleground States

Trump’s approval is underwater in the seven battleground states he won in 2024. His declining ratings in these areas could advantage Democrats in the midterms, enabling them to gain key House and Senate seats.

The states and their net approval ratings are:

• Arizona: -12 (42% approve, 53% disapprove)
• Georgia: -22 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Michigan: -21 (37% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Nevada: -21 (37% approve, 58% disapprove)
• North Carolina: -15 (40% approve, 55% disapprove)
• Pennsylvania: -18 (38% approve, 56% disapprove)
• Wisconsin: -16 (40% approve, 56% disapprove)

White House Response

The White House frequently dismisses Trump’s low approval ratings, referencing his 2024 victory as proof of support. White House spokesman Davis Ingle emphasized the president’s “popular and commonsense agenda” and described Trump’s global impact as historic. Ingle remarked that Trump remains a dominant political figure.

For inquiries, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Sam Wilson.