Texas Senate Race 2026: Opportunities and Challenges
After a year of intense competition and $109 million in advertising, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn have entered a quiet phase in their primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. Over the weekend, both candidates refrained from public appearances and new statements as they awaited the result of the GOP nomination battle. Meanwhile, Democratic State Representative James Talarico is also in anticipation, poised for a race that may influence Senate control.
Texas has not seen a Democrat in the U.S. Senate since Robert Krueger’s temporary appointment in 1993. Krueger lost his seat later that year in a special election. With Paxton’s nomination path strengthened by a May 19 endorsement from former President Donald Trump, Talarico’s chances are looking more plausible. This unexpected development has given Democrats a rare chance to claim the Senate seat.
Potential Shift in Texas Politics
According to Republican strategist Mike Madrid, a combination of three significant factors has created an opportunity for Talarico to secure a statewide victory, an event not seen in 32 years. Madrid highlights a favorable political landscape, a Democratic candidate with broad appeal, and a Republican opponent with significant baggage. These conditions suggest improved prospects for Democrats.
Talarico, a seminarian and freshman state representative, sees Trump’s backing of Paxton over Cornyn as advantageous. The endorsement symbolizes a nominee grappling with ethical issues, an unpopular former president, and a potential opening for a Democratic victory in a traditionally Republican stronghold.
Endorsement Dynamics
Trump’s support for Paxton was part of a retaliatory effort against establishment Republicans. Paxton’s brand as a loyal Trump ally energized core supporters, yet deterred moderates and independents aware of his impeachment trial and legal controversies. In contrast, Cornyn’s dependable conservatism conflicted with his at-times lukewarm support for Trump, damaging his image among MAGA supporters.
Despite Cornyn’s conservative record, Trump’s endorsement of Paxton highlighted Cornyn’s periods of discord with Trump. In his statement, Trump acknowledged Cornyn’s past support but criticized his delays in backing Trump’s 2016 campaign.
Paxton has faced significant challenges, including acquittals and legal settlements. Cornyn’s campaign has consistently spotlighted these issues, which are expected to remain central if Paxton secures the nomination.
Talarico’s Lead and Democratic Hopes
Recent polls show Talarico leading Paxton. The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas reported Talarico ahead by 8 points, while another poll indicated a lead of 5 percentage points. Although margins of error exist, these results indicate a competitive race in a state that last saw a Democratic statewide victory in 1994.
A Paxton victory on Tuesday would mean a closer race than expected within a previously Republican-dominated cycle. If Cornyn had won the nomination, Talarico’s chances would be slim, yet with Paxton, his likelihood of success rises, though remains challenging. Talarico needs a significant portion of moderate voters to win.
Talarico’s candidacy appeals to voters due to his independent stance and faith-driven narrative, unusual among Democratic nominees. He represents a shift from divisive politics, which resonates with some Texans.
Demographics and GOP Strength
Republican strategist Alex Patton advises caution despite Democratic optimism. Historical data from presidential elections show Republicans maintain a lead over Democrats in Texas. Although the GOP share decreased from 2012 to 2020, a structural advantage remains.
Patton emphasizes Republican voter dissatisfaction, driven by current political challenges and Trump-induced frustration, as factors that could affect outcomes. Talarico represents an opportunity for Democrats, but changes in September and October could influence the race significantly.
Key Voter Groups
A potential Democratic victory would mark a notable turn, fueled by diminishing Republican support among Latinos and independents. Trump’s previous Latino voter support has waned, with current approval dropping significantly. Economic concerns and immigration policy have driven this shift.
Polls reveal Talarico leading both Paxton and Cornyn among Latino voters, indicating a realignment rather than mere fluctuation. Madrid, a Republican strategist with expertise in Latino voting trends, cites the economy and government overreach as reasons for this change.
With Paxton favored in the runoff, Texas becomes a battleground Republicans didn’t foresee. Talarico is ready, yet Texas remains a challenging environment. Despite favorable conditions, continued shifts are essential for a Democratic win.