El Niño’s Anticipated Impact on U.S. Weather

Growing Concerns Over El Niño’s Strength

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center forecasts a notably strong El Niño this winter. Meteorologist Tony Fracasso emphasized potential severe weather for the United States, particulalry affecting California and the Southeast.

Understanding El Niño

El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern influenced by Pacific Ocean and atmospheric interactions. La Niña is its cooler counterpart.

Characteristics include unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, leading to stormier Southern U.S. weather and drier Northern conditions. It can also alter hurricane activity.

Potential Effects on Various States

Fracasso highlighted the likelihood of more storms in California, causing warmer winters across the country. Wetter conditions are expected in Southern states including Gulf areas and the Carolinas, although cold temperatures and potential snow remain possibilities.

There is a chance for drier conditions in northern areas near the Great Lakes. NOAA’s August forecast confirms El Niño’s strengthening, predicting a historic event surpassing previous cycles since 1950.

Western states like Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona might experience increased snowfall.

‘Unprecedented’ Climate Events

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli indicates a potential unprecedented episode with significant warming in the Tropical Pacific. A strong subtropical jet stream, influencing winter weather patterns, is likely to form, increasing frequency of fronts and rainfall particularly in the US South and California.

The term ‘Super El Niño’ refers to notably strong events, last referred to during 2015-16. The phenomenon’s intensity remains somewhat mysterious with oceanic and atmospheric interactions difficult to fully model.