New Hampshire Senate Race Heats Up: Pappas vs. Manzur

Progressive candidates seek a late surge to boost Karishma Manzur in the New Hampshire Democratic primary for Senate. Representative Chris Pappas, however, maintains a lead in both polls and prediction markets.

New Hampshire’s Political Landscape

New Hampshire, a Democratic-leaning swing state, supported former Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin of about 3 points in the 2024 election. With incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen retiring, both parties see the upcoming race as highly competitive.

Democrats hope national anti-Trump sentiment continues to favor them. Republicans, on the other hand, believe former Senator John Sununu’s candidacy could tighten the race. Recent polls suggest both parties may find themselves in a statistical tie.

Primary Race: Pappas vs. Manzur

The upcoming primary on Tuesday is crucial for shaping the general election. Although Pappas remains the perceived frontrunner, progressives hope for an upset by Manzur, especially after a University of New Hampshire poll suggested a closer race. Meanwhile, Sununu is seen as the Republican favorite against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown.

Polling Insights

An independent poll by the University of New Hampshire surveys 2,143 residents, including 881 Democratic primary voters, revealing Pappas’s 13-point lead over Manzur. Earlier polls showed Pappas with even larger leads, but the gap has narrowed.

• Saint Anselm College poll shows a 31-point lead for Pappas.
• A GQR internal poll puts Pappas 56 points ahead, though margin of error details were not released.

Pappas has represented New Hampshire in Congress since 2019 and previously served on the Executive Council. Manzur is part of the progressive movement, advocating Medicare for All and critiquing Israel, differentiating herself from Pappas.

Prediction Markets and Republican Focus

Pappas enjoys a 98% chance of winning against Manzur according to Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow traders to buy and sell outcome-based contracts, but they do not always predict futures accurately.

Republicans view the New Hampshire race as increasingly competitive. Two polls indicate Sununu is tying with Pappas. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll gives Sununu a small margin, while UNH shows Sununu ahead by just two points.

Other polls, like those from Saint Anselm College, favor Pappas against Sununu and Brown. No public polling exists with Manzur as the nominee, casting uncertainty on her potential performance.

Concerns and Campaign Developments

Pappas has sent fundraising emails highlighting the competitive race, prompting some Democrats to express concern. They urge more spending to prevent a surprise Republican victory. Kathy Sullivan, former state Democratic Party chair, stresses the necessity of safeguarding close states like New Hampshire.

John Sununu has consolidated Republican support, bolstered by an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Despite challenges, historically, New Hampshire has proved tough for Republican Senate candidates, with Democrats winning recent elections by significant margins.

Electoral Landscape and Strategy

New Hampshire’s voters are nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a large number of independents. Winning independents will be crucial for success. Historically, the state has leaned Democratic in federal elections, yet elects Republican governors.

In 2024, the state narrowly went in favor of Harris, and in prior years, voted for Biden and Clinton by narrow margins. Republican Kelly Ayotte won the gubernatorial race in 2024 decisively, echoing success from Sununu’s prior campaigns.

Democrats’ Challenge to Flip the Senate

Potential Republican gains in New Hampshire could hinder Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, with Vice President JD Vance serving as a potential tiebreaker. Democrats must gain four seats to capture the Senate, and face competitive races in Georgia and Michigan.

With scant opportunities to gain seats, Democrats must pursue wins in battlegrounds like North Carolina and Maine. If New Hampshire falls to Republicans, Democrats need further flips in conservative states.

Forecasters’ Views

Experts from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the New Hampshire Senate race as „Lean Democratic,” indicating a narrow Democratic advantage. Voter turnout on Tuesday will vary by location, with larger cities closing polls at 7 p.m. ET.