Minnesota Senate Race: Flanagan vs. Tafoya

A recent poll reveals a close contest between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Flanagan is currently ahead with 44 percent of likely voters, while Tafoya holds 42 percent. The two-point difference places both candidates in a statistical tie, highlighting the upcoming election’s competitiveness.

The survey by TIPP/League of American Workers conducted from August 31 to September 2 included responses from 1,201 likely voters. 4 percent of respondents support other candidates, 2 percent prefer someone else, and 8 percent remain unsure. This poll follows the party nominations secured by both candidates last month. The seat is available due to Democratic Senator Tina Smith’s departure. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent. While the League of American Workers is led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, it does not have formal ties with the Republican Party.

Midterm elections often serve as assessments of the party in power’s political environment. Historically, the President’s party tends to lose seats during midterms. Currently, Republicans have a slim majority in both the House and Senate. The Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Democrat. In the 2024 presidential election, former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by about 4 points over President Donald Trump.

Lexi Byler, a spokesperson for Flanagan’s campaign, criticized Tafoya, stating she aligns with Donald Trump’s policies, such as ICE and mass deportation, and defends January 6 rioters. Exposed to Trump’s actions, Tafoya remains supportive of policies affecting health care and tariffs impacting farmers and prices. Flanagan campaigns for the needs of working families, suggesting voters will favor her in November.

Tafoya responded to the poll on X, noting the race’s competitiveness and criticizing Flanagan for issues related to Minnesota taxpayer dollars and lacking accountability. She emphasizes the need for leadership, stating that the race is open, calling for support to win.

Flanagan became the Democratic nominee after defeating Representative Angie Craig in the primary. Considered more progressive, Flanagan received endorsements from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar. Tafoya, with a background as an NFL sideline reporter, seeks to leverage her recognition for a statewide triumph. Her campaign draws national interest as Republicans aim for Minnesota gains despite past Democratic successes.

Though earlier polling showed Flanagan with a larger lead, Tafoya appears to have narrowed the gap. Both candidates have equal independent voter support at 37 percent. Among registered voters, Flanagan slightly leads Tafoya by 2 points, polling 1,494 individuals with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.

Tafoya’s favorable rating stands at 34 percent, with 30 percent unfavorable and 36 percent without opinion. Flanagan’s favorability is 39 percent against a 34 percent unfavorable, with 28 percent lacking opinion. Questions about Flanagan’s stance on gender transitions for minors were included, though no direct policy question about Tafoya was asked.

Kalshi prediction markets suggest Flanagan holds a 90.5 percent chance of winning, compared to Tafoya’s 9.5 percent. Polymarket forecasts similarly, indicating Flanagan at 94 percent probability over Tafoya’s 8 percent.