Minnesota Senate Race Heating Up with Flanagan Leading Tafoya

Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya

Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan slightly leads Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race according to a recent poll. Her lead is within the margin of error, indicating a closely fought contest with Election Day approaching on November 3.

The poll comes at a time when Democrats are aiming to regain control of the Senate. The Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority in the chamber. Democrats need to defend their seats, including in states that President Donald Trump won during his 2024 presidential run, and flip four additional Republican-held seats to achieve their goal. Midterms often reflect the political atmosphere facing the party in power, with the president’s party historically losing seats.

The Cook Political Report rates the Minnesota Senate race as likely Democrat. Efforts to reach the Flanagan and Tafoya campaigns for comments were made, but no responses were received.

Race Dynamics and Candidates

Flanagan and Tafoya compete for the seat of retiring Democrat Tina Smith. Minnesota last had a Republican senator in 2002, with Norm Coleman winning. However, in 2008, Democrat Al Franken defeated Coleman for reelection. Flanagan won over Representative Angie Craig in the Democratic primary, representing the party’s progressive wing. Flanagan has support from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar.

Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, is the Republican nominee aiming to leverage her media recognition and outsider appeal to win the seat. The race has attracted national attention as Republicans hope to gain ground in Minnesota, even though Democrats have had a sustained advantage in the state.

The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat in August. Vice President Kamala Harris won the state alongside her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz by a 4-point margin over President Donald Trump in the 2024 election. Minnesota previously supported Hillary Clinton by less than 2 percentage points in 2016 against Trump. Barack Obama won Minnesota by nearly 8 points in 2012 and by more than 10 points in 2008.

Poll Overview

A Quantus Insights poll shows Flanagan leading Tafoya 48.2% to 44.4%. About 88.6% of respondents are firm in their voting decision, with 7.5% open to change. Women favor Flanagan by 14 points, while men lean towards Tafoya by 8 points.

Voter age groups reveal a divide. Voters under 45 support Flanagan significantly, while older voters tend to favor Tafoya. The poll recorded favorable ratings of 50% for Flanagan and 42.4% for Tafoya.

The survey of 720 likely voters took place from September 8 to 10, with a 4.2 percentage point margin of error.

Additional Polls

Other polls show Flanagan ahead but within the error margin. A TIPP/League of American Workers poll found a similar narrow lead for Flanagan, 44% to 42%, supporting figures that reflect Flanagan’s strength among younger generations and minorities including Black and Hispanic voters, while Tafoya gains support from older, male, and white voters.

Another poll from KSTP/SurveyUSA in August shows Flanagan leading 46% to 41%, with 11% undecided.

A Mason-Dixon survey indicates Democrats lead on the generic ballot, sponsored by various local institutions.

Prediction markets heavily favor Flanagan to win, giving her approval chances above 90%.

Senate Control Prospects

Democrats need four Republican seats and retention of their current seats for Senate control. They anticipate vacancies due to economic, Trump’s approval dip, and Iran tensions. Democrats eye races in Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. Republicans are leading in Florida, Iowa, and Kansas.

Georgia and Michigan are key states, while GOP-controlled Maine and North Carolina represent flip opportunities for Democrats. Markets are split on Senate control after midterms. Kalshi tips Republicans to potentially win the chamber; Polymarket leans toward Democrats slightly.

Minnesota’s early voting starts on October 16.