Texas Senate Runoff: Trump Backs Paxton Against Cornyn

Voters in Texas return to the polls on Tuesday to select the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a challenging race against Attorney General Ken Paxton, who recently received an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Despite a historically good relationship with Cornyn, Trump chose to support Paxton.

This election serves as a measure of Trump’s influence among Republicans. His endorsed candidates often gain victory, and Paxton holds a lead over Cornyn in recent polls. Nonetheless, backing Paxton could risk the Republicans losing the seat to Democratic State Senator James Talarico.

Polling Data

Recent polls indicate a narrow but steady lead for Paxton in the Republican Senate runoff. Most reliable surveys show him ahead by low single digits, with some averages reflecting a slightly larger margin due to growing conservative support.

• Quantas Insights (May 21-23): Paxton at 52.7%, Cornyn at 43.4% – Margin: Paxton +9.3 (±3.5% MOE)
• University of Houston Hobby School (April 28-May 1): Paxton at 48%, Cornyn at 45%, Undecided 7% – Margin: Paxton +3 (±2.8% MOE)
• Global Strategy Group (May 6-11): Paxton at 52%, Cornyn at 40% – Margin: Paxton +12 (±4% MOE)

The polling average between March and May reveals Paxton around 48.8% compared to Cornyn’s 41%, with an average margin of Paxton at +7.8. Paxton’s lead increased after Trump’s endorsement.

Prediction Markets Analysis

On prediction markets, Paxton shows a pronounced lead. The regulated market Kalshi pinned Paxton’s chances of winning at 95%, compared to Cornyn’s 4.4%. Over on Polymarket, Paxton is seen with a 77% probability of having a lead greater than 9% over Cornyn.

Following Trump’s endorsement, these figures rose substantially for Paxton, whose chances were initially at 62%.

Trump’s Endorsement

Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social praised Paxton as a committed ‘MAGA Warrior’ and criticized Cornyn for his lack of support for various initiatives. Trump urged voters to support Paxton, characterizing him as a loyal ally.

Paxton expressed gratitude for Trump’s endorsement, calling it a complete and total support of his campaign and highlighting Trump’s own devotion to American people.

Democratic Challenge

The winner of the runoff will challenge James Talarico in November’s election. Talarico combines progressive politics with a faith-based approach. While Texas supported Trump strongly in 2024, Talarico is seen as a strong contender for the Senate seat.

Talarico stated that his real opponents are the wealthy donors and corrupt systems, rather than focusing on party lines. He promoted a movement aimed at aiding working people.

Betting markets, like Kalshi, revealed a tight general election race with Republicans having a 55% chance of retaining the Texas Senate seat.

Cornyn’s Perspective

Cornyn remains hopeful about keeping the seat under Republican control, citing his 10-point win in 2020. He noted that Paxton’s controversies might impact general election outcomes if Talarico addresses these issues effectively.