Senate Election in Florida: A Tight Race Between Moody and Nixon

Florida Republican Senator Ashley Moody is in a fierce battle with Democrat Angie Nixon for a crucial Senate seat, according to recent opinion polls that indicate a close contest. Moody’s campaign alerted supporters with a “special election alert” email mentioning the tight race as shown by two recent surveys. If Nixon, who is a current Florida state representative, manages to win, it would mark a significant victory for the Democrats aiming to regain control of the Senate in the upcoming November midterms. Historically, no Democrat has won a statewide election in Florida since 2018, and Republicans hold a significant lead in voter registration.

Current Polling Data

The Moody campaign highlighted two surveys conducted by St. Pete Polls and Change Research that depict the race as neck and neck between Moody and Nixon. The St. Pete Polls survey, which sampled 913 likely Florida voters, showed Moody ahead by a marginal 0.4 percentage points, garnering 45.2% to Nixon’s 44.8%. This poll was conducted from September 15 to 17 through automated telephone calls and SMS messages and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

The poll provides insights into voter demographics. Nixon showed strength among independents, leading with 49.8% against Moody’s 37.4%, and performed well among voters aged 18 to 29, with 63.7% support compared to Moody’s 25.3%. Conversely, Moody led among non-Hispanic white voters (53.4% to 38.7%) and those aged 70 or older (61.1% to 31.9%). However, these demographic breakdowns come with caution due to the smaller sample sizes in these subgroups.

Meanwhile, Change Research surveyed 1,107 likely voters for Freedom Project USA from September 7 to 9, reporting a tie with each candidate at 47%. President Trump’s net favorability stood at minus ten in this poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

In contrast, a Quantus Insights poll of 733 likely voters conducted from September 8 to 10 found Moody leading with 50% of the vote against Nixon’s 43%, albeit with a higher margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Election Outlook

The tied polls gain particular attention given the Republican voter registration advantage in Florida, where Republicans had about 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats as of the end of July. In 2024, Trump secured the state by 13 points, and Republican Senate candidates surpassed their Democratic challengers by 12.8% in 2024 and 16.4% in 2022. Despite the polling indicating a close race, election analysis website Decision Desk HQ still projects Moody as the favorite, with a 78% chance of victory.

A RealClearPolling average supports this, showing Moody with a five-point lead, capturing 48.3% compared to Nixon’s 43.3%.

Background

Moody was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, filling the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who became Secretary of State at Trump’s behest. Angie Nixon secured her candidacy by defeating retired army lieutenant colonel Alexander Vindman in a surprising primary result on August 18, despite being significantly outspent by Vindman, a social democrat.

Currently, the Senate comprises 53 Republicans, while 47 senators caucus with the Democrats. Losing control of the Senate in the November election would significantly limit Trump’s political maneuvers during the remaining two years of his term.

For additional comments on this story, Newsweek editors Daniel Orton and Cristina Diciu can be contacted.