Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs. Paxton

Polling Insights

In the current political landscape of Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is gaining notable traction among 2024 Donald Trump voters. This contrasts with the relatively limited support Attorney General Ken Paxton receives from Kamala Harris voters, as revealed by a recent Big Data Poll. For Democrats, turning a Senate seat in Texas would considerably impact President Trump’s ability to advance his legislative goals in his potential final two years as president. Capturing a Senate seat in a Republican stronghold like Texas would be a significant win for the Democrats, who have not secured a Senate victory there since 1988. Newsweek attempted to reach out to both the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comments.

Survey Results

The Big Data Poll, conducted between September 24 and 26, surveyed 698 likely Texas voters. It shows Talarico leading Paxton with 44.6% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 41.6%, after excluding voters who only lean towards one candidate. Notably, 15% of 2024 Trump voters support Talarico, whereas Paxton secured backing from only 4.3% of Harris voters. Among Harris voters, 89.3% favored Talarico, while 72.2% of Trump voters supported Paxton. This poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured Texas with 56.2% of the vote against Harris’ 42.5%.

Results from a SoCal Strategies poll, conducted from September 12 to 13, mirror these findings. This poll comprised 649 likely Texas voters. Talarico has 95% support from 2024 Harris voters and 14% from Trump voters. On the other hand, Paxton is backed by 84% of 2024 Trump voters and only 4% of Harris voters. Governor Greg Abbott, also facing a strong Democratic challenge, performs better with Harris voters compared to Paxton, receiving 13% of their support. The SoCal Strategies survey shows a five-point lead for Talarico, with 50% of the vote to Paxton’s 45%. Abbott leads his opponent Gina Hinojosa by 52% to 44%.

Additional Polls

A separate Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico leading Paxton by five points, with 49% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 44%. Conducted between September 19 and 22, this survey polled 1,007 likely voters with a 3.6% margin of error.

Conversely, a Texas Southern University poll, conducted from July 27 to 30, indicated a narrower race, giving Talarico a two-point lead over Paxton, at 47% to 45%.

On prediction markets, Talarico’s chances have increased. Polymarket now forecasts a 61% chance of victory for Talarico against Paxton’s 40%. Earlier in July, Paxton had the upper hand. Kalshi shows a similar trend, with Talarico at 59% and Paxton at 41%. Paxton previously led with 57% versus Talarico’s 43%.

Controversies and Candidate Positions

Paxton, supported by Trump, faces challenges even among Texas Republicans. He won a heated primary runoff against incumbent John Cornyn, who has criticized him heavily and refused to support his Senate campaign. In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House due to allegations of misconduct, although he was acquitted by the Senate.

Talarico has faced scrutiny for his outspoken comments about Christianity. In a 2021 speech, he described God as nonbinary and critiqued traditional views. His remarks sparked debates within the state. Additionally, an AI-generated video released by Paxton’s campaign misrepresented Talarico’s positions, omitting important context.

The debated yet unresolved prospect of televised debates continues. Talarico has challenged Paxton to a public debate on Fox News, but no arrangements have been finalized.