Ukraine Faces Challenges in Increasing Air Defense with Patriot Systems
Volodymyr Zelensky recently announced Donald Trump had agreed to allow Ukraine to produce U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems. The White House has not yet confirmed this, and even with immediate action, Ukraine might face significant delays before producing such systems. The defense industry in Russia is increasing its output of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, challenging Ukraine’s current air defense capabilities.
According to Ukrainian figures, Russia launched 587 ballistic missiles in the first seven months of the year, surpassing the 511 fired in all of 2025. On September 27, seventy-six out of 170 Russian drones sent to Ukraine were jet-powered. The following day, 79 of 165 drones were jet-powered as well. Zelensky stated Ukraine’s defenses intercept jet-powered drones 55 percent of the time. Consequently, around 70 drones bypassed Ukrainian defenses over two nights.
Strategic Shifts in Ukraine’s Defense
Given this situation, Ukraine’s military shifted its focus to attacking Russia’s launch sites for missiles and drones. Over the recent weekend, the General Staff emphasized the importance of destroying these facilities before missiles and drones are deployed.
Patriot Systems and Strategic Meetings
On September 22, the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents met during the United Nations General Assembly. Topics included efforts to end the war, with air defense as a key concern. Ukraine reported discussions regarding domestic production of Patriot interceptors. Zelensky claimed Trump assured him of a decision granting necessary licenses for Ukraine to build Patriots locally.
Zelensky highlighted that Patriot interceptors remain essential for targeting ballistic missiles. However, the costs and complexities involved in producing these systems present challenges. A U.S. Army contract in 2024 for 870 PAC-3 MSE interceptors cost $4.5 billion. Using more affordable alternatives like the PAC-3 ACE still requires substantial investment.
Production Timelines and Challenges
Zelensky estimated establishing domestic Patriot production could take 12 to 18 months. Alternatively, Ukraine hopes to develop a system via the pan-European FREYJA program, with an expected prototype in a few months. Russia continues producing 55 to 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles monthly and around 50 RM-48Us.
Threat from Russian Jet-Powered Drones
Increased Patriot production helps counter ballistic missiles, yet the systems are too costly for frequent use against daily drone threats. Russia’s production of jet-powered drones presents a growing challenge. Moscow released 350 in June, 1,500 in July, and 2,850 in August. By late September, more than 2,730 were launched.
Russia’s defense industry not only expands its output but also improves quality. The Geran-3 drone evolved into Geran-4 and Geran-5 variants, offering higher speeds and enhanced capabilities, including electronic warfare countermeasures.
Developing Effective Countermeasures
Ukrainian engineers are developing affordable, rapid-response interceptors. When Zelensky addressed the U.N. General Assembly, he mentioned successful testing of four such designs. However, the strategy now includes preventing launches.
Attacking Launch and Production Sites
In recent weeks, Ukraine has focused on disrupting Russia’s missile and drone production and launch facilities. Ukrainian forces targeted Russian S-400 launchers and UAV production sites. Actions occurred in occupied territory and across the border in Russia. Key facilities involved in producing ballistic missile components were also struck.
This strategy forms a systematic strike program, one of Ukraine’s top combat priorities. As Ukrainian engineers work to improve defenses, their military aims to prevent missile and drone launches by targeting launchpads and production facilities.