Los Angeles Mayoral Race Tightens Ahead of Primary
A new poll conducted by UC Berkeley and Los Angeles Times reveals a competitive three-way contest in the Los Angeles mayoral race. Mayor Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and reality TV personality Spencer Pratt are nearly tied as the June primary approaches. The latest survey indicates that Bass has 26% support, Raman follows closely with 25%, and Pratt has 22%. These figures are within the margin of error, meaning no candidate holds a definitive lead.
Polling Trends and Dynamics
This represents a significant change from earlier polls, where Bass had a clear advantage. This shift suggests that voter turnout will be crucial in deciding which candidates advance to a potential November runoff. Predictive markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, still show a strong preference for Bass, giving her a 71% and 69% chance of winning, respectively.
“Everyone knew this would be a close race, and it shows Karen Bass in the lead heading into Tuesday,” said Doug Herman, a Bass campaign adviser.
The poll was conducted from May 19 to 24 with 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters. It has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. Mark DiCamillo, director of Berkeley IGS polls, notes that all three candidates have distinct voter bases, emphasizing the importance of turnout in the final decision.
Factors Influencing the Race
The campaign focuses heavily on issues such as homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety. The fallout from recent fires, like the 2025 Palisades Fire, also plays a role. Pratt criticizes Bass’ disaster response, while Raman questions her policies on homelessness. Pratt employs AI-generated videos for his campaign, resulting in high online engagement, though its effect on voters remains uncertain.
Comparing Past Polls
Emerson College previously reported Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, and Raman at 19%. Earlier data depicted a fragmented race with many undecided voters. In March, surveys showed Bass at 25%, with Raman and Pratt lower and 26% undecided. UCLA Luskin reported similar fragmentation with Bass at 25%.
Overall, Bass has maintained a steady presence without significantly increasing her lead, while Raman and Pratt gain traction.
Prediction Market Insights
Prediction markets offer fast signals and sometimes diverge from polls due to speculation. Bass remains favored at 71% on Polymarket, compared with 25% for Pratt and 6% for Raman. Kalshi presents slight variations, showing Raman at 17% and Pratt at 22%.
These markets agree Bass is likely to reach the runoff, though uncertainty exists around the second-place candidate.
Celebrity Influence
Spencer Pratt’s sister, Stephanie Pratt, shared her unexpected support for his candidacy. Her comments reflect how celebrity and policy concerns shape this unusual contest.
Next Steps
The primary on June 2 will decide the top two candidates who will advance to the November runoff if no candidate commands a majority. As support clusters around the leading contenders and undecided voters dwindle, turnout will be pivotal in determining the outcome.