Democratic Candidate Talarico’s Challenge in Texas Senate Race
Democratic candidate James Talarico’s prospects against Republican Ken Paxton have declined after Paxton secured the GOP nomination for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat. On Tuesday night, Attorney General Paxton received support from President Donald Trump and defeated incumbent John Cornyn, a four-term senator, with 62% of the vote, as reported by the Associated Press. Since this result, prediction markets have shown a shift in favor of Paxton. However, with over five months until Election Day, the race remains uncertain.
The November election will test whether Democrats can gain ground in a state they haven’t won statewide since the mid-1990s. Suburban areas around cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston, along with recent polling and prediction market trends, suggest a competitive race. Newsweek attempted to reach Talarico’s campaign for comment outside standard business hours.
Betting Odds
Prediction market Polymarket indicates Talarico’s chances of winning the Texas Senate election dropped by 5 percentage points since Tuesday, decreasing from 45% to about 40% by Thursday. The market currently shows a 61% chance for Republicans to win and 40% against. Kalshi estimates Talarico’s probability at 43%, slightly down from earlier in the week. BetOnline reports that after Paxton’s runoff victory, betting odds shifted in favor of the GOP, making Paxton a slight favorite at -125 compared to Talarico at -105. This reflects a competitive race.
What the Polls Have Said
Polling indicates a competitive race with no clear leader. Early polling showed a tight contest. In January, an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll found Paxton and Talarico tied at 45.6% in a hypothetical matchup.
Talarico, a Presbyterian pastor and state lawmaker, won the Democratic nomination in March against Representative Jasmine Crockett. By April, polls indicated Talarico took the lead amid Republican primary divisions. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Talarico leading Paxton 46% to 41% in mid-April. Another April poll by the Texas Politics Project found Talarico ahead by 8 points (42% to 34%).
However, a poll conducted between April 22 and May 6 by the Barbara Jordan Center predicted both candidates at 45%. This polling trend shows an evolution from an early tie to Democratic strength, then narrowing as Republicans coalesce behind Paxton. Talarico’s polling surpasses Beto O’Rourke’s standing during the 2018 Senate race, suggesting Democrats are starting from a stronger position than in 2018. Nevertheless, the Cook Political Report still categorizes the race as Lean Republican, reflecting Texas’ GOP leaning.
What Have Paxton and Talarico Said About the Race?
Following his runoff win, Paxton proclaimed, “Today, change was on the ballot and change won.” Speaking to supporters in Dallas, he framed the Senate seat as belonging to Texans, not Washington. Trump labeled Paxton a “MAGA Warrior,” and Paxton aligned himself with grassroots conservatives, focusing on border security and criticizing federal overreach.
Talarico’s campaign has faced Republican criticism for past remarks, such as a 2021 statement during a legislative debate describing God as “nonbinary,” and his support for LGBTQ+ rights. Republicans have aimed to present Talarico as too liberal. Talarico counters by framing the race as a fight against “corruption and extremism,” proposing a moderate, policy-oriented governance. He labeled Paxton as “the most corrupt politician in America,” citing allegations of corruption and failures in character. This criticism follows Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on abuse of office and corruption charges, though he was acquitted by the Senate.
Texans will vote on November 3, 2026.