Xavier Becerra Leads California Gubernatorial Primary Race

Former Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading in California’s gubernatorial primary race. A new poll shows Becerra ahead just days before Tuesday’s primary election. Both Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are close contenders for second place.

California employs a top-two primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The two with the most votes progress to the general election. Even if both are from the same party, they advance.

The state typically favors Democrats in statewide elections. In the 2024 election, Vice President Kamala Harris outperformed President Donald Trump by about 20 percentage points in her home state. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican governor, leaving office in 2011.

Who Is Running for California Governor?

Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is unable to seek re-election due to term limits. This situation has attracted nationwide attention. Key candidates include:

• Xavier Becerra: Democrat, former HHS Secretary under President Joe Biden.
• Chad Bianco: Republican, Riverside County sheriff.
• Steve Hilton: Republican commentator, former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron.
• Matt Mahan: Democrat, San Jose mayor.
• Katie Porter: Democrat, former Congress representative from Orange County.
• Tom Steyer: Democratic businessman.
• Tony Thurmond: Democrat, state superintendent of public instruction.
• Antonio Villaraigosa: Democrat, former Los Angeles mayor.

Former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee have exited the race before the primary.

The field mostly includes Democrats but offers diverse views. Among them, Becerra follows a traditional party establishment route. Porter is a policy-oriented progressive focused on consumer rights and oversight. Villaraigosa represents a centrist approach. Steyer presents himself as an outsider with a populist stance, focusing on climate and economic inequality issues, supported by his private wealth.

Republican candidates like Bianco and Hilton represent traditional and populist conservative wings, respectively. They face challenges in this largely Democratic state. However, the primary system’s structure allows openings in a fragmented field. President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton recently.

Hilton, speaking to Newsweek, said he remains cautious but confident, emphasizing a strong effort until the primary’s end. Most polls place him in the top two, but competition remains fierce. The general election occurs in November.

What the New Poll Shows

The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey before Tuesday’s election shows Becerra leading with 28% support. Steyer is at 22% and Hilton at 21%, making for a tight race.

Support among other contenders decreases. Bianco has 12%, while both Porter and Mahan have 5%. Undecided voters make up another 5%.

When undecided individuals were prompted for preferences, Becerra stayed at 28%. Meanwhile, Hilton and Steyer both rose to 23% support.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters on May 27-28. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director, said that Becerra remains the frontrunner as the primary nears. Both Steyer and Hilton might advance to November’s election. Kimball added that if Bianco’s backing dwindles by Election Day, Hilton could gain. Steyer needs to activate younger voters, limiting Becerra’s growing coalition.

What Other Polls Show

The latest poll reveals a 9-point increase for Becerra over a similar May Emerson survey. Steyer and Hilton also rose, by 5 and 4 points, respectively.

The earlier poll, conducted May 9-10 among 1,000 likely voters, had Becerra at 19%, with Hilton and Steyer at 17%. Bianco got 11% and Porter 10%. The error margin was ±3 percentage points.

Becerra and Steyer’s support has increased in several polls. Hilton’s support has also climbed, while Porter’s has edged down.

A University of California Berkeley survey (May 19-24) of 5,472 likely voters gave Becerra 25%, Hilton 21%, and Steyer 19%. The error margin was ±2 percentage points. Lower down, Bianco had 11%, Porter 7%, and Mahan 4%.

A PPIC Statewide Survey (May 14-18) of 986 likely voters found Becerra leading with 23%. Hilton followed with 20%, then Steyer at 15%, Bianco 13%, Porter 12%, Mahan 8%, and Villaraigosa 4%. The error margin was ±4.1 percentage points, placing the gap between Becerra and Hilton within range.

Recent polls provide reassurance to Democrats. Early surveys indicated a chance that Hilton and Bianco, both Republicans, could progress to the general election as prominent Democrats divided the vote.