Tom Kean Jr.’s Absence Affects NJ Congressional Race

New Jersey Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr.’s chances in November’s general election are slipping. This follows his unexplained medical absence. Prediction market data and election experts show his advantage in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District dwindling. The race is now a toss-up.

Kean has missed over 100 votes in Congress. His last public appearance was March 5. In April, he stated he was dealing with “a personal medical issue.” Kean is running unopposed in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, multiple candidates compete, hoping to flip the seat.

Polls and Betting Odds

On Polymarket, the Democratic Party has a 75% chance of winning the seat. GOP odds are 14%. A week before March 5, Kean had a 46% chance and Democrats 43%. By March 5, Democrats led with 55% odds. Kalshi shows Democrats at 78% and Republicans at 22%.

Democrats in the Primary

Four Democrats are vying in Tuesday’s primary: Michael Roth, Rebecca Bennett, Brian Varela, and Tina Shah. An internal poll by the 314 Action Fund found Shah narrowly defeating Kean, 46% to 43%. When voters received more information, Shah’s lead increased to 49%.

Election analysts expected a tight race, even before Kean’s absence. The Cook Political Report adjusted the race rating from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” in November 2025.

Reason Behind Kean’s Absence

Kean’s office cited a “personal health matter,” with no clear return. March 5 was his last House vote, supporting the Homeland Security Appropriations Act. He did not return when the House reconvened on March 16. In April, Kean reassured followers of his return to a full schedule.

House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke to Kean in April, expressing confidence in Kean’s return. Kean’s absence has become central to Democratic campaigns, raising questions about district representation.

Democrats Aim to Flip NJ-07 Seat

New Jersey’s 7th District covers a large northern and central area. It includes Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. The district is highly competitive. Trump narrowly won here in 2024.

The district has shifted between parties in recent elections. GOP’s Leonard Lance lost to Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2018, then Kean defeated Malinowski in 2022. After 2021’s redraw, it leaned more Republican. The general election follows the June 2 primary, occurring on November 3, 2026.