U.S. Jobs Report: Key Insights and Expectations

The Upcoming Jobs Report

The U.S. government’s latest jobs report is set for release on Friday morning. It offers a snapshot of hiring trends in May and examines the resilience of employment conditions. The report will be available at 8:30 a.m., detailing changes in nonfarm payrolls. It includes data on jobs added and lost, employment across various industries, earnings, and unemployment rates, both nationally and by demographic groups.

Last month’s report revealed that the economy added 115,000 jobs in April, surpassing analysts’ forecasts. However, these figures, along with those from previous months, might face revisions on Friday. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 percent, up from 4.0 percent in January when Donald Trump took office, but down from a recent peak of 4.5 percent in November.

The Importance of the Report

Analysts saw the April report as evidence of a resilient U.S. labor market despite concerns that the Iran war might impact hiring. The upcoming release will provide further insights into this resilience. It will also assess whether employment can gain momentum in 2026 after a weak year for job creation post-pandemic and the worst non-recession year since 2003.

Expectations for Friday’s Jobs Report

Analysts predict that around 85,000 jobs were created in May, a decrease from an average of 150,000 over the previous two months. If accurate, 2026 job creation averages about 78,000 per month, factoring in potential revisions to past months. Forecasts vary, with FactSet’s survey estimating 105,000 jobs added, while Goldman Sachs expects an increase of only 60,000. The payroll firm ADP estimated that private-sector employers added 122,000 roles last month.

Recent Labor Data Trends

Friday’s report follows data conflicting with the previously diagnosed ‘low-hire, low-fire’ U.S. labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April, compared to around 6.9 million in March, surpassing forecasts and reaching the highest level since May 2024.

However, job cuts are also rising. In May, announced layoffs totaled 97,006, a 16-percent rise from April, representing the highest tally for the month since 2020. So far in 2026, U.S. employers have announced 397,755 layoffs, marking a 43-percent decline from the previous year. However, 2025’s figures were inflated by federal layoffs and the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Adjusted for this, 2026 layoffs align closely with 2024’s.

Implications for Policymakers

The report could significantly impact policymakers dealing with inflation driven by the Iran war and its effect on fuel prices. “A strong report would uphold the view that the U.S. economy remains robust. However, it could also rekindle concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to maintain restrictive rates for a longer period,” notes Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com.